A few hours before the official announcement of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner, María Corina Machado, massive bets on a crypto-paris platform suddenly anticipated the result. Was it a simple coincidence or an information leak at the heart of the Nobel Committee?
A strange night in the prediction markets
In the early hours of 10 October 2025, something unusual happened: on the crypto-betting platform Polymarket, a massive influx of bets suddenly propelled an under-favoured candidate (María Corina Machado, a Venezuelan opposition figure) to the rank of absolute favourite for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize.
A few hours later, the prestigious Nobel Committee announced Machado as the winner. This disturbing coincidence has prompted the committee to investigate a possible leak of information.
Out of the shadows and into the light: Machado’s sudden rise
On the night when everything changed, the bets seemed to anticipate the official decision.
Before this impressive upset, Machado’s chances on Polymarket were extremely slim. She was hovering between 0.6% and 3.7% according to observers – well behind more predictable candidates such as Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny. But after midnight, the volume of bets in her favour exploded, taking her to over 70% implied probability in the space of a short time.
According to Finansavisen, an account freshly created on the same day placed a bet of several thousand dollars on Machado: a move that is now attracting attention. One of the reported winnings is said to be in excess of USD 65,000 for this audacious bet. Another user nicknamed GayPride is said to have taken advantage of the momentum to make more than USD 85,000.
At 10.50 am Norwegian time, Machado was officially informed of her award by Kristian Berg Harpviken, Director of the Nobel Institute.
The method of selecting Nobel laureates is traditionally shrouded in scrupulous secrecy. The entire process, from the nomination of candidates to the final decision, is protected to avoid any manipulation or outside influence. The committee itself seems stunned by this scenario: according to Jørgen Watne Frydnes, Chairman of the Nobel Committee, the group has always been very good at maintaining secrecy. Kristian Berg Harpviken, for his part, admitted that it was too early to be certain that there had been a leak, but said it was likely that an investigation would be launched.
The Nobel Institute has confirmed that it is now examining whether confidential information may have been passed on to outside parties prior to the public announcement. Investigations into leaks in the past show that this is not an isolated case: on several occasions, the Norwegian media have revealed the name of the winner before the ceremony, notably for Barack Obama or the prize awarded to the European Union.
Betting, predictions and the ethical dilemma
Platforms like Polymarket operate on a prediction market model: users bet on future results, and the prices reflect the probability estimated by these bets. But unlike a traditional bookmaker, prediction markets self-adjust according to the capital committed.
Herein lies the major problem: if inside information exists on the outcome of an event, a well-placed person could exploit this channel to place a bet with an unfair advantage. At present, Polymarket does not explicitly prohibit betting on inside information, opening the door to this kind of scenario.
Critics ask: does this type of betting really help to refine the ‘collective prediction’ or is it simply a risk of manipulation? Some economists argue that, in a free market, bets based on information unknown to the public can increase the accuracy of the probabilities displayed. But in the context of a Nobel Prize, the ethical question may outweigh the efficiency of the market.
Beyond betting: what scope for investigation?
The opening of an enquiry could have major repercussions, not only for the Nobel, but also for the wider field of prediction markets and betting on current events. The committee will have to determine whether a player obtained access to the results before the official announcement (via an internal contact or hacking) and whether this constitutes a breach of the Nobel’s internal rules.
Although Polymarket does not fall under traditional jurisdiction, the case could trigger calls for stricter regulation of these markets, particularly for events of political or diplomatic importance.