In its ‘2026 Crypto Market Outlook’ report, Coinbase identifies prediction markets as the next sector poised to disrupt the US financial industry. Buoyed by Kalshi’s historic legal victory against the CFTC and record volumes on the elections, this segment is set to emerge from the grey area and merge trading and sports betting in a finally regulated framework.
This is a must-read for any gambling operator or crypto investor. In its latest forward-looking analysis, US giant Coinbase has dropped a bombshell: 2026 will not be a year of transition, but one of recognition for prediction markets in the United States.
Long relegated to offshore platforms or academic experiments, these markets are poised to enter the mainstream, driven by new legal clarity and voracious user demand.
The domino effect of the Kalshi ruling
The catalyst for this optimistic prediction can be summed up in one name: Kalshi. The regulated platform’s decisive victory against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the Federal Court of Appeal has changed the game.
Until now, the regulator’s position has been to systematically block contracts related to elections, treating them as illegal ‘gambling’ rather than financial derivatives. By invalidating this interpretation, the US courts have opened up a huge loophole.
According to Coinbase’s report, this ruling sets a vital precedent. It allows operators to offer contracts on real-world events (politics, economics, culture) in a 100% legal and regulated framework on American soil, cutting the ground from under the feet of unregulated platforms that had been operating in a grey area until now.
Polymarket: Proof through volumes
Coinbase is so confident because the proof of concept was overwhelming in 2024. The decentralised Polymarket platform recorded colossal volumes, exceeding $3 billion in cumulative bets on the US presidential election alone.
These figures reveal two major trends that Coinbase highlights:
- Public appetite: Users want to bet on current events with the same ease as they bet on an NFL match.
- The wisdom of the crowd: Prediction markets have often reacted more quickly and accurately to campaign dynamics than traditional polls, thereby gaining intellectual and media legitimacy.
However, as Polymarket remains technically inaccessible to US residents (except via VPN), domestic demand remains largely unsatisfied. This is where the regulated US market, anticipated by Coinbase, is set to take over in 2026.
Towards the sportification of finance
The Coinbase report points to a fascinating convergence: the sportification of financial markets. The line between high-frequency trading and sports betting is blurring.
New generations of investors treat binary events (Yes/No) as tradable assets. This trend is fostering the emergence of hybrid products where the user experience (UX) borrows from sports betting applications (Betclic, DraftKings), but where the underlying infrastructure relies on blockchain for transparency and instant settlement.
Technical and ethical challenges
Despite this optimism, there is still work to be done. The integration of these markets poses technical challenges that operators will have to resolve. Managing liquidity on fast-resolution events requires a robust infrastructure that only blockchain seems to be able to offer at a lower cost.
Furthermore, the issue of market integrity remains central. Unlike a sports match where the referee is (theoretically) neutral, political or economic events can be subject to manipulation or insider trading. Coinbase emphasises that the transparency inherent in distributed ledgers will be the key argument to reassure regulators and users.