The Dutch political party PVV withdrew from the coalition. PVV leader Geert Wilders immediately receives a wave of criticism.
What was the reason for this collapse?
Wilders wanted to obtain certainty to get his asylum plans done, because he had promised the voters the strictest asylum policy ever. But he did not succeed in obtaining the signature of the coalition partners and therefore withdrew support for this government. The coalition leaders accuse him of playing a political game and that he wanted to bring down this cabinet.
But what do these complications actually bring about in terms of gambling policy and gambling tax?
What are the consequences?
Now that the PVV is withdrawing and Prime Minister Dick Schoof has offered his resignation to the King, new elections must be held. This situation is a repeat of what happened in 2023.
The Rutte IV cabinet fell on July 2nd and the resignation was offered on July 7th. On 22 November 2023, new elections were held in the Netherlands to form a new parliament. In the intervening period, the previous cabinet remained in office until the next cabinet (of Prime Minister Schoof) was sworn in on July 2nd, 2024. Remaining in office means that a country continues to be governed, but that the highest priorities are put forward.
In the event of new elections, the demissionary effect begins
When new elections seem inevitable, the demissionary effect starts automatically. Among others, Teun Struycken (Legal Protection) and Tjebbe van Oostenbruggen (Finance) will then retain their responsibilities for the time being.
However, they can no longer carry out their original plans. The standing parliamentary committees must decide whether the documents and reports in question should be considered politically sensitive (and therefore controversial). If so, the subject in question will be temporarily put on hold until the new government arrives. They will then decide how to proceed, based on their own vision.
What are the consequences in terms of gambling policy and gambling tax?
In February, State Secretary Struycken shared his vision on gambling policy, in which he drew attention to the following issues: risky gambling from the age of 21, overarching limit and advertising restrictions.
But the fall of the government could also have consequences within the gambling file, because the State Secretary wanted to see these measures implemented in the coming years. The standing committee for Justice and Security will decide whether the policy response is considered controversial.
But if we are talking about gambling tax, then the tax increase is part of the already approved tax plan where the demissionary effect can no longer have any influence on it. But if a new government has been formed, these plans can be reviewed and possibly adjusted.
Spokesperson Birgit de Bruin of the Ministry of Justice and Security released the following statement:
“What a cabinet fall means for gambling is not yet known. More clarity will most likely come in the coming weeks when the House of Representatives has voted on which topics will be declared controversial.”
Some vision for the near future
Opinions differ on how to proceed:
Former Member of Parliament Bert Bakker expects that the State Secretary will be able to continue with his plans. According to him, the proposals he is preparing will then have to be consulted with the market, and then we are already talking about 2026. He states that it will depend on the progress of the negotiations on a new cabinet, but Bert Bakker does not actually doubt the support that Struycken has already received for his proposals.
Gaming lawyer Justin Franssen of Franssen Tolboom Advocaten has already built up extensive experience in the perils of the cabinet. He states that a cabinet fall is always accompanied by inevitable delays, even when a file is not considered controversial. He does see the planned increase in the gambling tax from January 1st, 2026 as a likely fact, because there would be too little time to stop it and it has already been included in the national budget.
Chairman Björn Fuchs of the industry association VNLOK (Licensed Dutch Online Gambling Providers) believes it is too early to draw conclusions. Only when it becomes clear what consequences this will have for the gambling market, should there be a more extensive response. He does emphasize that VNLOK would like to see policymakers and governments officials take careful and proportionate steps with regard to the gambling file.
Little chance that plans regarding gambling tax will be reversed
When asked for a response, iGaming Consultant Willem van Oord, also organizer of the “Gaming in Holland”-events, responded:
“I secretly hoped that the second increase in gambling tax as of January 1st, 2026 could still be reversed. Some Members of Parliament seemed to be open minded after discussions with gambling providers. But then this adjustment of the budget plans would have to be initiated in the relatively short term. I hope I am wrong, but I don’t really see that happening now. That is why I think that the land-based sector in particular is facing a tough year.”
He does not expect that Struycken’s plans will change much. He says that he is aware of the support that his proposals received in the House of Representatives. He does foresee a possible delay, but the fall of the cabinet will not have that much influence on this.
Niels Meloen from Borgen Tax (tax consultancy firm):
“The Tax Plan Bill 2025 includes both the increase from 30,5% to 34,2% as of 2025 and the increase from 34,2% to 37,8% as of 2026. This bill has been adopted by the House of Representatives and the Senate, which means that the increase in the rate of the gambling tax as of 2026 has been legally established. This means that the rate increase will be implemented automatically and that no additional legislation or approval is required for this. I expect that the demissionary status of the cabinet will make it more difficult to stop the rate increase than it will help in practice. After all, amending the law that has already been adopted requires a new bill that must be approved by both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The demissionary status of the cabinet makes it less likely that changes will be made to this legislation in the short term.”
As things stand now, the planned increase in gambling tax will most likely not to be adjusted.