The autumn Golden Week in Macau is dawning with a sense of optimism: tourism authorities are anticipating a significant increase in visitor numbers, higher revenues for casinos, and confirmation of the shift away from gaming that the city-region has been striving to negotiate for several years.
Expected visitors: surprising figures
According to the Macau Government Tourism Office (MGTO), no fewer than 1.2 million people are expected to visit Macau during the eight days of Golden Week, from 1 to 8 October. This represents an average of 150,000 visitors per day, up from an average of 140,000 during the equivalent week last year, but slightly below the peak observed during the Lunar New Year (approximately 153,000).
This estimate is based on several factors: Golden Week coincides with the Mid-Autumn Festival this year, which adds to its appeal. MGTO Director Maria Helena de Senna Fernandes notes that this is a relatively good figure and points out that it could fill 90% of available hotel rooms.
Casinos: betting on GGR and gaming innovations
Macau’s casinos are not only betting on visitor numbers, but also on an increase in gross gaming revenue (GGR). According to Citigroup analysts, daily GGR is expected to reach 1.05 billion patacas (≈ £111 million) during this period.
How is this possible? There are several reasons:
- Firstly, technological improvements: smart tables reduce the time needed per game, particularly for baccarat, a very popular game. By reducing playing time by just a few seconds, returns can increase by around 6%.
- Secondly, the rise of side bets in baccarat. Whereas they previously accounted for a small percentage of revenue, they now account for 45-50% of baccarat turnover.
Citigroup adds that if the momentum continues after Golden Week thanks to major events such as the NBA China Games at the Venetian Arena, GGR forecasts for October could be revised upwards.
Beyond casinos: the transformation of Macau
Macau no longer wants to be just a gambling paradise. A Deloitte report, commissioned by the MTGO (Macau Tourism & Leisure Office), assesses progress under a tourism plan that aims to have non-gaming revenue contribute 60% to gross domestic product by 2028.
Industry players are investing heavily in non-gaming attractions, upgrading visitor facilities, expanding cultural and entertainment offerings, and increasing cooperation with Hengqin and other cities in the Greater Bay Area (Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao).
Furthermore, since the beginning of the year, Macao has welcomed 26.9 million visitors, an increase of 15% year-on-year. If this trend continues, the annual total could reach 40.17 million in 2025 and 46.43 million in 2030, according to projections.
Outlook
If the forecasts are confirmed, these few days of festivities could serve as a catalyst. First, economically, casinos will be able to reap substantial revenues, which would reinforce the ambitious projections for October. Second, strategically, this could cement Macao’s reputation not only as a gambling capital, but also as an integrated destination for tourism, leisure and international events.
Finally, socially, the effects could be felt by professionals in the sector: hotels, restaurants, transport and various services. These players are already on the front line and their performance during Golden Week will serve as a barometer for the coming months.
The autumn Golden Week in Macao is much more than just a tourist peak. It brings together the economic expectations, transformation ambitions and logistical challenges of an entire city-region. Now is the time for preparation, strategy… and hope that these eight days will usher Macao into a new era, one where gaming coexists with culture, entertainment and a richer tourist offering.