Google Finance is broadening its range of information by integrating data from two prediction market platforms: Kalshi and Polymarket. The aim is to give users a clearer picture of market expectations for key events.
A significant change on Google Finance
For a long time, Google Finance was mainly content with aggregating stock market prices, financial data and some traditional economic information. But the recent decision to integrate data from Kalshi and Polymarket subtly transforms the tool into a platform where you can not only see what’s happening, but also what the markets think is going to happen.
Now, when a user looks up a stock, commodity or economic event, they can see probabilities of future scenarios derived from these predictive markets. This data appears in the form of percentages, sometimes accompanied by explanations of the issues surrounding the event.
While this initiative was not announced with great fanfare by Google, it has not gone unnoticed by observers of the financial sector. It bears witness to a wider trend: the increasing integration of behavioural analysis into economic monitoring.
Kalshi: a regulated platform targeting the real economy
Of the two platforms selected, Kalshi stands out for its status. Based in the United States, it is officially regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a government agency that also supervises futures markets. This gives it significant institutional legitimacy in the financial world.
On Kalshi, users can bet on measurable economic events:
- The level of inflation
- Interest rate decisions
- The number of jobs created
- Quarterly GDP growth
The idea is simple: to transform economic forecasts into markets where supply and demand determine the probability of a scenario.
In other words, if a lot of people think an event is going to happen, the price will reflect that certainty.
Some economists see this as a new, more dynamic way of measuring market expectations, which are generally estimated using slower indicators such as questionnaires or analyst forecasts.
Polymarket: Web3 dynamics applied to prediction
Polymarket occupies a different but complementary position. Operating on blockchain, it has developed in the Web3 sphere and attracts a younger, more global audience.
It covers a wide range of topics:
- Political elections
- Economic trends
- Popular culture
- Sport
- Technological advances
Here again, the probabilities displayed reflect the price at which users are prepared to buy or sell a position on the occurrence of an event.
But Polymarket has also faced regulatory challenges. In 2022, it was fined in the US for failing to comply with CFTC rules. Since then, it has adjusted its activities, notably by limiting certain services to US users.
This integration by Google Finance can therefore be seen as an acknowledgement of maturity, albeit a cautious one.
A new era in financial information?
With Kalshi and Polymarket, Google Finance is taking a major step forward: it is no longer content to describe the world as it is, but is showing how the market imagines the future.
This development could prove decisive in the way both professional and private investors analyse economic and political trends.The future will tell whether this data becomes an essential tool… or just another layer of information.