A Romanian mathematician achieved the impossible: beating the lottery. Far from relying on luck, Stefan Mandel viewed the lottery as a rational problem to be solved.
The mathematical calculation behind Stefan Mandel’s success
The core of Stefan Mandel’s strategy is based on a simple but highly effective idea: buying a ticket for every possible combination in the draw. To understand this, you need to know how the lottery works.
For example, in a classic lottery where you have to choose 6 numbers out of 49, the total number of possible combinations is given by the calculation:
49! / (6!(49-6)!) = 13,983,816
This means that to be sure of winning the jackpot, you would have to buy almost 14 million tickets, each corresponding to a different combination.
When it becomes profitable
Buying all combinations is not always possible or profitable. The total cost of purchasing tickets must remain lower than the guaranteed jackpot, otherwise the bet is a losing one.
If the price of a ticket is, for example, 1 euro, then the cost of buying all combinations is nearly 14 million euros, which is generally out of reach.
This is where Mandel came in: he waited until the jackpot was high enough (well above the cost of purchasing all the tickets) to justify the investment. For example, if the jackpot is 20 million euros, purchasing 14 million tickets at 1 euro could yield a profit, even after deducting other winnings (second- and third-place tickets, etc.) and various fees.
Optimising the calculation
In some lotteries, Mandel used more complex formulas to slightly reduce the number of tickets to buy without losing the certainty of winning, taking advantage of specific rules (such as the presence of bonus numbers, or the way secondary winnings are awarded).
For example, he used the technique of ‘combinatorial condensation’: instead of covering all possible combinations, he covered a sufficiently large set of combinations, focusing on those with the highest probability of being drawn according to the rules of the game, or taking into account factors such as shared tickets or impossible combinations.
In addition, he created an investors’ syndicate that financed the bulk purchase of tickets, thereby spreading the cost and risk. This syndicate provided the funds needed to quickly print, purchase and register millions of tickets before the draw.
Overall victory: 14 wins, several countries
The system began modestly in Romania, where Mandel won enough to emigrate to the West. In Australia, the scheme expanded: several jackpots, huge ticket production, until the authorities restricted these practices.
His most resounding achievement came in 1992: in the state of Virginia (United States), Mandel and his syndicate printed more than 7 million tickets, covering all combinations and winning the jackpot as well as numerous other prize levels.
A genius in the spotlight… and overtaken
Although his strategy was not illegal, it attracted the attention of the FBI and the CIA and led to drastic legislative changes in several countries to ban the mass purchase of tickets.
Ironically, success turned into a thorn in his side: in 1995, Mandel lost all his money. Now retired, he lives far from the spotlight on the island of Vanuatu.
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Who is the man who won the lottery 14 times?
Stefan Mandel.
Who is Stefan Mandel, the man who found the secret to winning the lottery 14 times?
Stefan Mandel is an economist and mathematician of Romanian origin, born into a modest family.
Is Stefan Mandel’s method legal?
It was legal at the time of his winnings, but since then, many lotteries have adopted rules prohibiting the purchase of so many tickets at once.
Does Stefan Mandel’s method work for all lotteries?
No, it did not work for lotteries where purchasing the necessary number of tickets cost more than the jackpot that could be won. Today, many lotteries have adopted rules prohibiting the purchase of so many tickets at once.
Who has won the lottery seven times?
Richard Lustig, seven-time lottery winner, emphasises the importance of playing methodically. He highlights the importance of manually selecting numbers and carefully managing your gambling budget.