Kalshi has decided to take a major step forward: transforming what was considered a simple betting or speculation tool into a genuine scientific forecasting instrument. In New York on 22 December 2025, it unveiled Kalshi Research, an initiative that could well redefine the way we understand the future.
An unprecedented opening of market data to the academic world
Faced with growing demand for tools capable of anticipating economic and social phenomena, Kalshi has chosen to share what it describes as the largest database of predictive markets currently available. This move is significant: it aims to enable teams of qualified researchers to work directly with the raw data generated by Kalshi’s live markets. This includes information on trader behaviour, price movements and how prices evolve as real events approach.
Kalshi’s stated goal is ambitious: to stop viewing prediction markets as financial curiosities or gambling games, but rather as windows into the collective dynamics of human expectations. This initiative places the company at the intersection of finance, behavioural economics and data science.
In addition to this opening up of data, Kalshi is organising the first conference dedicated to prediction markets. Kalshi Research has invited renowned academics to come together to present their work, discuss methods and explore the possible applications of this rapidly growing new discipline.
The names associated with this first edition are impressive: representatives from institutions such as Harvard, Stanford, Yale and the University of Chicago have already confirmed their participation. The call for papers is open to the public, a sign that Kalshi wants to build a lasting bridge between the scientific community and market practitioners.
Is Kalshi beating Wall Street at forecasting?
To mark the launch of its new branch, Kalshi has also published an unprecedented internal study comparing its own market data with forecasts made by Wall Street economists. The challenge? To find out whether predictive markets can compete with traditional economic forecasting models.
The results are, quite simply, spectacular according to the figures released: the study shows that prices from the Kalshi markets outperformed Wall Street consensus forecasts, with an advantage of around 40% in overall accuracy on a series of macroeconomic events, particularly inflation. What’s more, when market forecasts and analysts’ forecasts diverged significantly — i.e. during periods of increased volatility — the performance gap widened in Kalshi’s favour. This superiority was particularly evident in short-term forecasts, often an area of uncertainty for traditional econometric models.
Kalshi makes no secret of its ambition: to make predictive markets a tool used by policymakers, business leaders, economic analysts and investors. In a press release, management explained that market probabilities can serve as early warning signals for economic reversals or trend changes, often before traditional indicators reflect these movements.
A context of growth and regulatory challenges
This scientific initiative comes at a time of rapid growth for Kalshi. Founded in 2018 and based in New York, the company has undergone several major stages of development in recent years. It has raised substantial funds, attracted the attention of leading investors and expanded its activities into new market segments, while navigating a complex regulatory environment, particularly in the United States.
For some observers, this opening up to academic research can also be seen as a way of gaining legitimacy in the eyes of the authorities, who still have questions about the exact nature of the contracts offered by Kalshi — somewhere between betting, speculation and a financial tool.
What future applications may emerge from this alliance between live markets and scientific analysis? For now, no one can predict with certainty the extent of the impact. But one thing is clear: this marriage of practice and theory is a story to be followed closely by anyone interested in understanding uncertainty in a constantly changing world.