The increase in gambling tax in the Netherlands was intended to boost government revenue. However, as the tax rate rises, warning signs are multiplying: a decline in expected revenues, increased pressure on operators and players turning to illegal gambling.
An acknowledged budgetary ambition
On 1 January 2025, the gambling tax rate rose from 30.5% to 34.2%. The Dutch government had calculated that this increase would generate a surplus of around €202 million per year until 2028.
In addition, the opening of the online gaming market in October 2021 increased revenue from this tax from €343 million in 2021 to €1 billion in 2024.
Everything seemed to be in place to make this measure a boost for public finances.
However, the idyllic scenario has been derailed. According to the regulatory body Kansspelautoriteit (Ksa), revenues are in fact declining: in the first half of 2025, they could be €40 million lower than expected.
The report notes that GGR is declining in both online and land-based casinos. Since the tax is calculated on this result, the increase in the rate is not enough to offset the contraction in the tax base. In short, higher taxation has not, so far, meant higher revenues.
Side effects: sector under pressure, migration to the illegal market
This replacement of promise with reality weakens the entire chain: operators, the effect of driving players to the illegal market, and player protection policy.
On the illegal side, the fear is very real: a parliamentary document notes that the level of taxation planned for 2026 could be the highest in Europe and that the risk of players fleeing to unregulated operators is potentially very high. The impact can also be measured in concrete terms: the supply of physical casinos has already fallen by 9% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the end of 2024.
The tax increase was also presented as a lever to strengthen prevention and channel players towards legal offerings. However, reports show that effective player protection remains insufficient. An assessment published in November 2024 indicates that the online gambling law does not yet fully fulfil its mission of protecting vulnerable players.
Even more shocking, the Ministry of Justice and Security explains that the tax increase does not serve to improve player protection at all:
“The tax increase should not contribute to better protection against gambling-related harm. The measure is not intended to improve player protection or prevent gambling-related harm. It therefore does not directly correspond to the objectives of gambling policy, but may influence them indirectly. If more people turn to unregulated offers, exposure to the risks associated with illegal gambling increases, which may lead to an increase in gambling-related harm. An excessively high tax may therefore unintentionally lead to an increase in gambling-related harm.”