From October 2024, the Kansspelautoriteit (Ksa), the Dutch gaming regulator, has introduced a new player protection scheme: monthly deposit limits. From now on, anyone depositing a net amount in excess of €700 must suspend any further payments until the end of the current month. Young adults, aged between 18 and 25, are subject to a more restrictive ceiling of €300.
What was the aim? To limit excessive financial losses, raise awareness of good practice and avoid the excesses of compulsive gambling. But at what cost?
Expected results: losses down sharply
The initial results are encouraging: the average monthly loss for a regulated player has fallen from €116 to €80, a drop of 31% over the analysis period (eight months before and eight months after implementation). High-risk” players, who used to lose more than €1,000 a month, now account for 1% of punters, compared with 4% previously.
At the same time, gross gaming revenue (GGR) fell by 8% among legal operators, a sign that excessive behaviour has been contained. However, active accounts remained stable at around 2.4 per player.
Half-tone financial results for operators
As a result of these new constraints, the Ksa observed a contraction in GGR over the second half of 2024 (-10% compared with the first half), despite a 6% jump over the year as a whole, to €1.47 billion. In particular, legal operators recorded a fall in their online sales, down by as much as 26.6% for Holland Casino.
Worse still, the increase in the tax burden (from 30.5% in 2024 to 34.2% from January 2025, then 37.8% in 2026) is amplifying the challenges facing these players. Casinos are worried: margins are shrinking, efforts to promote responsible gambling are being undermined, and profitability is under threat.
The growing shadow of the illegal market
While the measures appear to be effective in containing losses, they are giving rise to one major fear: a move back to the black market. Since October, searches on illegal sites have exploded.
- According to the Ksa, the channelling rate (deposits on legal sites) remains high at 93%, compared with 95% after the rules were announced.
- Conversely, H2 Gambling Capital estimates that up to half of the iGaming market (€2.10 billion) is played offshore.
A KVA report reveals that between October and March, visits to the 100 most searched-for illegal sites rose from 172,576 to over one million. The number of illegal domains identified at the top of the results also rose from 19 to 72.
These statistics have prompted analysts and trade associations to sound the alarm: too much regulation in the legal circuit could result in excessive gamblers – those we would most like to protect – being lost to out-of-control platforms.
The decisive role of taxation and regulatory balance
Above the deposit cap hovers the sword of Damocles of ever-increasing taxes. The effect of driving players away from the black market could be exacerbated by adverse taxation.
The paradox: better protect or expose?
This initial assessment reveals a troubling paradox: the measures protect vulnerable players in the controlled universe, but leave the door open to an illegal market. The proportion of losses between legal and illegal gambling is dangerously close to 1:1.
The Ksa will soon be announcing a detailed study on the effect of the new taxes and the confinement of deposits. The country now needs to strike a balance: how can players be made safer without stigmatising legal operators or stimulating obscure channels?