In the heart of Manhattan, two prediction market platforms have transformed grocery aisles into an unprecedented marketing battleground. Kalshi had already offered free shopping baskets, but Polymarket decided to go one step further by opening what it describes as New York’s first free supermarket.
Kalshi enters the scene
It all began on February 2, 2026, when Kalshi welcomed New Yorkers in East Manhattan with a simple but irresistible offer: up to $50 worth of free groceries per person at a supermarket in the East Village neighborhood. Lines stretched for several blocks, and nearly 1,800 people signed up to participate in the event, which ran from noon to 3 p.m.
The scene could have resembled an ordinary charity event, were it not for Kalshi’s ubiquitous branding and banners posing market questions such as “Recession this year?” and “Will Arizona Iced Tea prices rise this year?”
Polymarket: an XXL response
No sooner had Kalshi created a buzz than a rival announced its response. Polymarket, another major player in this sector, unveiled the launch of The Polymarket, a free supermarket that will remain open for five days, from February 12 to 15, 2026. Unlike Kalshi, which limited its offer to a $50 credit, Polymarket promises shelves full of goods for everyone, with no purchase necessary.
In a message on social media, the company summarized its vision:
“The Polymarket is fully stocked. No purchase required. We’re open to all New Yorkers. A real, physical investment in our community… Free groceries. Free markets (bolded by myself for emphasis). Built for the people who power New York.”
It also announced a $1 million donation to Food Bank for NYC, one of the leading organizations fighting food insecurity in New York City, taking its initiative beyond a simple publicity stunt.
What message lies behind this action?
The question is obvious: is this really an act of solidarity or a spectacular publicity stunt? In a context where food prices remain high for many households, offering free products in exchange for brand visibility is a bold marketing strategy, but one that has provoked mixed reactions.
Zohran Mamdani, candidate for mayor of New York City, reacted sardonically to Polymarket’s announcements, arguing that the company is appropriating a real political issue—access to affordable food—for its own promotion. Mamdani himself proposes city-run grocery stores to combat the food crisis.
Prediction markets are at the center of a debate about their exact nature: are they a market, a bet, or a financial product? Some voices, such as those of the advocacy group Better Markets, believe that platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are more like gambling operations than true structured markets, especially in the absence of regulations equivalent to those of traditional financial markets or gambling. In this context, these free supermarket initiatives can be interpreted as a way of circumventing public skepticism or mistrust by associating these services with popular social causes. Some experts are concerned that this approach distracts attention from the risks.
A growing phenomenon
The competition between Polymarket and Kalshi reflects a booming sector. Trading on these platforms has reached daily volumes of over $400 million, an increase of about four times compared to the previous year, according to recent data.
Kalshi, in particular, recorded more than $263 million in commission revenue in 2025 and is valued at several billion dollars, the result of major integrations and partnerships in media and finance.
As for Polymarket, the platform is known for its decentralized structure and use of cryptocurrencies, which has sometimes placed it at the center of regulatory controversies, particularly in the United States.
As both companies make spectacular moves to attract public attention, the debate over the real value of prediction markets and their role in the economy and society continues to intensify, raising deeper questions about their suitability for concrete issues such as food security and financial regulation.