International prediction market Polymarket grows spectacularly
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14 May 2025 •
Reading time: 4 minutes It’s a fact that prediction market Polymarket is becoming more and more popular where you can speculate on future events such as politics, economics and sports.
The bet on “Who will be the new Pope?” received a lot of attention in the media. And earlier, the site was also mentioned internationally because a gambler had bet tens of millions of dollars on Donald Trump’s victory in the last presidential election.
How exactly does Polymarket operate?
The American company Polymarket operates completely autonomously, without the intervention of a central authority, and uses blockchain technology. A “blockchain” is a digital database that stores information in “blocks” that are linked together in a “chain”. A network of independent computers carries out bets and payouts.
Meanwhile, there are growing concerns about privacy as users can trade cryptocurrencies anonymously which is difficult to trace. On the other hand, their autonomy is also a sore point as there is no authority to control them. In addition, big players can influence bets with high stakes which poses a risk of manipulation.
Cryptocurrency increasingly popular among young people
Numerous Belgian experts are now expressing their concerns. For example, the use of cryptocurrencies is a major concern. Cryptocurrencies are increasingly popular with young people because this form of payment is closely linked to their digital world, it is accessible worldwide and can be easily traded online.
Furthermore, cryptocurrencies have built up a reputation for being able to increase their value quickly, which makes investing tempting. However, it should also be realized that when a value can increase quickly, a value can also decrease quickly, which makes the investment risky. It is therefore wise to be well informed about the applicable regulations and the unpredictability of the market.
Jolien Moernaut from (Vlaams Expertisecentrum Alcohol en andere Drugs, VAD), the Flemish expertise centre regarding alcohol and other drugs:
“Young people are more impulsive and do not always have the financial literacy to sufficiently understand concepts such as crypto and gambling.”
The Gaming Commission takes action
Jolien Moernaut reinforces her opinion by pointing out that these platforms do not perform age checks, which also allows minors to gamble. There are also no gaming limits, which is completely contrary to the rules for legal casinos in Belgium.
And the author Ronny Willemen, who wrote the book “Gokken is geen spel” states that the crypto market is very sensitive in nature, with losses often leading to reckless gambling behavior in order to win back the loss.
After the Gaming Commission discovered that Polymarket was offering its services illegally, they made multiple requests to the site to exclude Belgium. However, no action was taken, which is why the Belgian gambling watchdog has now added Polymarket to the blacklist. As a result, internet providers in Belgium must block access to this gambling site.
Member of parliament Stefaan van Hecke (Groen) is advocating that the Gaming Commission will be given additional powers to be able to act even faster and more adequate against such illegal providers:
“Illegal websites are illegal for a reason. They don’t care about the law. For example, they just let minors in. The Gaming Commission needs to be strengthened, because it can’t act everywhere at the same time. And you can’t block foreign gambling sites that easily.”
Impressive bets are sometimes mentioned in the media
Did you know that on Polymarket, a stunning 27.064.530 euros (30.143.338 dollars) was bet on the election of the new Pope? Their competitor Kalshi, which offers similar services, got stuck at 9.534.224 euros. (10.618.819 dollars)
But these are still “small” amounts when we compare them with the huge bets on the sports sector at Polymarket, such as more than 2 billion dollars on the upcoming NBA champion and almost 1 billion dollars on the upcoming Champions League winner. Such illegal providers flourish abroad, but always realize that if they do not have a license from the Gaming Commission, it is unwise to gamble there. They offer no player protection and operate without any oversight, which always involves danger and risks.