The sports betting model is under pressure. For years, bookmakers determined the rules, the odds and ultimately the profits. Now, an alternative is emerging that is turning the game upside down: prediction markets. Instead of placing a traditional bet, players purchase a contract that rises or falls in value depending on what happens.
That may sound technical, but the impact could be significant. Large platforms already attract millions of users, and during major sporting or political events, trading volumes can reach hundreds of millions of dollars. The question is therefore rapidly gaining traction: could this system permanently change traditional betting?
Betting is changing from betting slips to market contracts
In the traditional model, a bookmaker determines the odds. Players simply choose a side and hope that their prediction is correct. Meanwhile, the bookmaker monitors his risk and adjusts the odds when a lot of money is bet on one outcome.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket reverse that relationship. The price of a contract is determined by the market itself. For example, if a contract is trading at around $0.60, that means participants see about a 60% chance of the event happening.
This system is very similar to financial markets. Users can open a position and sell it later before the event is over. They can respond to new information and adjust their position when market sentiment changes.
For many players, this feels different from a traditional bet. It is more like trading than waiting for a match to end.
Transparency and fewer restrictions for players
A recurring criticism of bookmakers concerns limits. Players who win regularly are sometimes subject to restrictions. From a bookmaker’s perspective, this makes sense, as the company wants to limit its risk.
Prediction markets are different. The platform earns money through transaction fees and not through the outcome of a bet. As a result, there is no direct interest in restricting successful players.
The real restriction lies in the market itself. If there are too few participants willing to buy the other side of a contract, a large transaction becomes difficult. This is not due to a decision by the platform, but to supply and demand.
The pricing structure is also clearer for participants. Instead of hidden margins in odds, users immediately see bid and ask prices, trading volume and price movements.
Growth of platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi
In recent years, various platforms have received a lot of attention. The blockchain platform Polymarket grew strongly during political events and elections. During such periods, trading activity rose to billions of dollars.
Another example is Kalshi in the United States. That platform operates within a regulated system and is under federal supervision. For some users and partners, this provides extra confidence.
Kalshi grew rapidly. The number of active users rose from around 600,000 at the beginning of 2025 to more than 5 million a few months later.
This growth shows that prediction markets are no longer a niche market.
Bookmakers remain dominant for now
Nevertheless, traditional providers are still going strong. Big brands, sponsorship deals in sport and simple apps ensure that classic betting remains accessible to many people.
For a large audience, betting is mainly about excitement and entertainment. Prediction markets often appeal to a different type of user. People who analyse opportunities and want to actively open and close positions.
The global market for sports betting generates more than 80 to 100 billion dollars in revenue annually. Prediction markets are smaller but growing faster.
A different scenario therefore seems likely in the coming years. Both systems will coexist, while players slowly get used to a new idea: that odds are not only determined by bookmakers, but also by the market itself.