Who will be the next Pope? Bookmakers are on fire

Following the death of Pope Francis at age 88 on April 21, 2025, betting markets quickly mobilized to speculate on his successor. International bookmakers are now offering detailed odds on the frontrunners to become the 267th Supreme Pontiff of the Catholic Church.

Pope Francis’s death shakes up betting markets

On April 21, 2025, the Catholic world learned of the death of Pope Francis at the age of 88. Almost immediately, another scene sprang to life: prediction markets and bookmakers across the globe. Since the Vatican’s official announcement, online betting platforms have seen a sharp rise in wagers placed on the next Pope.

As early as March, the betting world had already reacted to concerns over Francis’s health. Polymarket even offered bets on the Pope’s well-being, the potential date of his death, and the possibility of resignation due to his condition.

The conclave to elect the 267th pope is expected to bring together 135 cardinal electors, all under the age of 80. It will likely begin 15 to 20 days after Pope Francis’s funeral.

Polymarket launches new bet on the next Pope

Polymarket, a site inaccessible in Belgium due to its lack of a license from the Belgian Gaming Commission, has already launched a new prediction market on the next pope. Who are the leading contenders among bettors?

Pietro Parolin, the frontrunner

Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State since 2013, currently leads the odds at many major platforms. According to OLBG.com (as of April 22, 2025), his odds stand at 4/1, implying a 20% chance of election.

A seasoned diplomat and close ally of Pope Francis, Parolin represents doctrinal continuity and political stability. His international stature and central role in Church affairs make him a strong favorite among both observers and gamblers.

Behind Parolin, several key figures emerge in the rankings.

Luis Antonio Tagle, former archbishop of manila

With odds of 5/1, Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle represents a more pastoral, inclusive vision of the Church, with a strong orientation toward Asia, a region where Catholicism is rapidly expanding.

Peter Turkson, first African Pope since the 5th Century?

From Ghana, Peter Turkson is priced at 6/1 and could become the first African pope since the fifth century. His progressive profile and advocacy on social and climate issues appeal well beyond the African continent.

More broadly, markets estimate a 50% chance that the next pope will come from Africa or Latin America. This reflects both the decline of Catholicism in Europe and the exponential growth of the Church in the Global South, a demographic shift likely to influence the cardinals’ vote.

“The next Pope could reflect the true geography of today’s Church – not that of yesterday’s Europe.”

Prediction markets: between speculation and insight

Far from being mere novelty, conclave betting markets now serve as analytical tools for understanding religious dynamics. Bettors consider a blend of factors: age, language fluency, pastoral experience, ideological proximity to Francis, and networks within the Roman Curia.

Websites like Gambling.com also note a growing trend toward betting on younger or less traditional candidates, such as Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich (Luxembourg), a vocal advocate of bolder pastoral reforms.

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Important Note: Despite the surge in online betting, the Vatican does not recognize any form of wagering related to the conclave. As a result, bookmakers are required to suspend all bets once the cardinals enter into conclave.