Eurovision 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable and hotly contested competitions in recent years. As all eyes turn to tonight’s second semi-final, Europe’s bookmakers continue to adjust their odds. Rehearsals, live performances and the first surprises of the week have already shifted the trends, fanning both fans’ hopes and controversy over the favourites.
As every year, the competition attracts not only music fans, but also gamblers, who bet big on the favourites. This year’s edition, held in Basel, Switzerland, has seen the emergence of promising figures and outsiders capable of springing a surprise. But how far can you really trust the bookmakers?
The weight of the odds: a double-edged sword
The bookmakers’ closely-watched odds have over time become a quasi-official barometer of Eurovision. Online betting platforms rely on audience trends, rehearsal performances, vocal and stage analyses, and even interactions on social networks to adjust their forecasts.
Sweden is currently dominating the charts with the trio KAJ and their song ‘Bara Bada Bastu’, rated 4/5. Their retro-tinged pop performance and their ease on stage are winning them over massively. Austria, with singer JJ and his ballad ‘Wasted Love’, remains a strong contender, with odds of 3/1.
Can Belgium win Eurovision?
Belgium, which presented a daring entry this year, unfortunately failed to make it past the first semi-final, held on 13 May 2025. Despite an original song and careful staging, the Belgian candidate failed to win enough votes to reach the grand final.
Prior to this elimination, bookmakers estimated Belgium’s chances at an average of 33/1, placing the country in the second half of the ranking. This setback is a reminder of just how unpredictable Eurovision can be, and how much the final result depends on multiple factors: live performances, stage coverage, reactions from the European public and the international jury.
Can we trust the bookmakers?
The bookmakers are sometimes right. In 2021, they correctly predicted a Måneskin victory for Italy. But they have also been very wrong in other years, such as in 2014 with the surprise victory of Conchita Wurst.
Betting is also influenced by external factors: support from the national public, viral campaigns on the networks, or political events. A country with strong support from its diaspora may climb the rankings without necessarily being artistically convincing.
Countries qualified for the semi-finals
The following countries qualified for the semi-finals on 13 May:
- Iceland,
- Poland,
- Estonia,
- Ukraine,
- Sweden,
- Portugal,
- Norway,
- San Marino,
- Albania,
- And the Netherlands.
Slovenia, Belgium, Azerbaijan, Croatia and Cyprus have already been eliminated.
This evening, the following countries will face each other:
- Australia,
- Montenegro,
- Ireland,
- Latvia,
- Armenia,
- Austria,
- Greece,
- Lithuania,
- Malta,
- Georgia,
- Denmark,
- Czech Republic,
- Luxembourg,
- Israel,
- Serbia,
- and Finland.
In addition to the countries that qualified in the two semi-finals, Switzerland, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom will be taking part in the final on 17 May.
What can you expect at the Grand Final?
The final will take place on 17 May 2025. Between now and then, the odds will continue to evolve according to the performances and the reaction of the public. Fans can still bet on the winner, the top 3, or even more exotic bets, such as the country that finishes last or the one that gets the most points from the public.
To bet on Eurovision in Belgium, choose an operator licensed by the Gaming Commission: