The health of public figures has long been a subject of interest, but the recent bet on the health of Pope Francis has sparked ethical debates. While prediction markets such as Polymarket specialise in improbable but exciting events, this bet raises questions about the limits of entertainment and respect for the privacy of public figures.
Prediction markets: a fast-growing phenomenon
Prediction markets, which allow users to bet on the outcome of certain events, are enjoying remarkable growth. These platforms, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, offer bets on events ranging from political elections to more unexpected events, such as the health of world figures.
The bet on the health of Pope Francis, who is currently 87, has been launched on Polymarket. This market allows participants to bet on the future of his health and, more specifically, on the date of his death or the possibility of his resignation due to his state of health. While this type of betting has long existed in other fields, it takes a more intimate and controversial turn when it concerns religious figures of the stature of the Pope.
Two predictive betting platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, often operate in the grey area between financial betting and forecasting tools. They have already offered controversial markets in the past:
- Kalshi offered a bet on the judicial fate of Luigi Mangione, the alleged suspect in the shooting of UnitedHealth’s CEO in New York. Among the betting options, users could wager on whether Mangione would receive the death penalty.
- Polymarket also offered bets that were deemed inappropriate, including allowing users to bet on the progress of the Los Angeles fires. This market allowed users to speculate on the trajectory and intensity of the fires.
Ethics in question
Critics of these bets point to a lack of respect for the human dignity and privacy of the individuals concerned. The Pope’s religious dimension accentuates this issue, as it touches on the deeply held beliefs of millions of people around the world.
Are punters aware of the impact of their actions? Is it really possible to separate entertainment from respect for privacy? Betting platforms have reacted by limiting certain categories of bets or putting restrictions in place to avoid bets deemed morally unacceptable.
The prediction market and its regulations
While the market for bets on the Pope’s health may be shocking, it is part of a wider dynamic. Platforms such as Polymarket have often escaped strict regulation, creating grey areas where the limits are difficult to define. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has faced similar challenges in regulating this type of market. While some bets may seem harmless, others, such as the one on the Pope, upset social and moral norms.
The emergence of this market raises a key question: will these platforms continue to thrive in such sensitive areas? Or will regulators and society begin to impose stricter rules to prevent this type of gambling? The future of the prediction market seems uncertain, but this phenomenon could well be a foretaste of what we could see in the years to come.
The status of Polymarket in Belgium
The Gaming Commission (GC) added Polymarket to its blacklist of illegal gambling sites on 30 January 2025. This decision is part of Belgium’s strict policy to protect consumers and regulate the online gambling sector.
One of the main reasons for the ban is the lack of an official licence for Polymarket to operate legally in Belgium. Under Belgian regulations, any platform offering gambling services must obtain authorisation from the GC. As Polymarket does not have this licence, its activity is therefore considered illegal on Belgian territory.
In November 2024, the Autorité nationale des jeux (ANJ), the French gaming regulator, opened an investigation into Polymarket. The purpose of this investigation is to assess Polymarket’s compliance with French gambling legislation.
Polymarket came to the attention of the ANJ and the GC after a French trader, known by the alias ‘Théo’, made an estimated $85 million by betting on Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 US presidential election. This substantial gain put the spotlight on the platform’s activity and raised questions about its legality.