Gambling tax collapses: millions in losses for the government!

Imagine: you raise a tax, expecting to bring in millions extra, and then… the whole plan falls apart. That is exactly what is happening with gambling tax in the Netherlands. Minister Eelco Heinen expected gold, but got dust. If the tax rate does not increase in 2026 and remains at 34.2%, the treasury will lose no less than 84 million euros. That’s no small change.

This is evident from Heinen’s answers to questions from the Standing Committee on Finance. That committee wanted to know – and rightly so – what actually remains of all those rosy predictions in the 2026 Budget Memorandum.

More tax? More closures. And real people will feel the impact

We are not just talking about figures here. Behind every closed amusement arcade are people: employees, entrepreneurs, regular customers. Since the rate increase in 2025, dozens of land-based casinos and amusement arcades have closed down. Small businesses that simply could no longer survive.

Researchers at Atlas Research have already sounded the alarm: if taxation rises to 37.8% in 2026, restructuring will be unavoidable. In other words, even more companies will go under, and the rest will have to fight hard to survive. The market is shrinking, and the balance? That will have to be rediscovered.

The online gambling market is also no longer cooperating

You may have thought, ‘Then the online gambling world will take the hit.’ But that is also going wrong. New rules mean that players lose less money (and therefore bet less). This is fine for the protection of players, but disastrous for tax revenue. Kansspelautoriteit (Ksa) is already expecting a shortfall of 263 million euros.

And that’s not just an estimate. The figures simply show it. Fewer people are gambling, companies are withdrawing, and the intended effect – namely 100 million extra in tax revenue – turns out to be pure fiction.

The House of Representatives has a lot of questions

In the parliamentary documents submitted on this subject (view them here), it is clear that MPs have doubts about the government’s estimates. And you can’t blame them. You say you’re going to win the jackpot, but you end up empty-handed.

It’s like betting one euro on red and expecting to win a hundred. Only the ball rolls somewhere else, and the croupier shrugs his shoulders.

Meanwhile, lawsuits are popping up

Companies that feel disadvantaged are not going down quietly. JVH Gaming, a major player in the gambling world, has already filed a lawsuit over the earlier tax increase. Their case is no exception, and who knows, more may follow.

The frustration is palpable. 

‘We are not cash cows,’ say some providers. ‘The government is squeezing us without considering the consequences.’ 

And that is not only economically painful, but also personal. Because these companies provide people with jobs and entertainment.

Higher taxes, stricter rules, less revenue

The strange thing is that all these measures together do not result in more money in the treasury, but less. From October 2024, stricter rules will also apply to betting limits and betting behaviour. These are intended to tackle gambling addiction – which makes sense – but they also have a financial impact. And that is reflected in the figures. Higher taxes + stricter rules = less turnover = less tax.

And what about the legal side? That’s a grey area

Heinen says: ‘The measure is legally tenable.’ 

But that’s easy to say. He admits that taxation infringes on the property rights of companies. Nevertheless, he believes that it all stays within the lines because the law allows it.

But the question is: how long will entrepreneurs put up with this? You can’t keep increasing taxes indefinitely without reaching the limit. And if companies disappear en masse, there will be little left to tax.