Increase in gambling tax: Providers experience consequences

The increase in the tax rate in the Netherlands is resulting in a decrease in revenue from gambling tax. This was confirmed by the Kansspelautoriteit.

The legal market is taking a serious hit 

We’ve written about this before. As of this year, the gambling tax is 34.2%, and by 2026, it’ll reach 37.8%. Companies like Holland Casino have already expressed their concerns.

They fear the tax burden will become so high that profit will be virtually nonexistent. Higher taxes could also lead to players disappearing from the Dutch market. Importantly, these increases will give the Netherlands the highest gambling tax rate in Europe.

The legal market is facing a tough time, as costs can rise for players, giving them the opportunity to switch to illegal websites where there is no regulation or protection.

The cabinet is now noting that gambling tax revenue is significantly lower than last year. If fewer people choose to gamble with legal providers, revenue in the legal sector will decline, resulting in lower tax revenue from both online and physical gambling.

The Ministry of Finance was aiming for additional revenue 

Although the reality now tells us otherwise, the Ministry of Finance was aiming for an additional 100 million euros in revenue from the increase. The figures released by the industry association VNLOK (Vergunde Nederlandse Online Kansspelaanbieders) confirm the sector’s decline.

For example, gross gaming revenue in the first half of this year is more than 25% lower than the previous year. A closer look at this comparison reveals that the corresponding tax revenue is now 83% of what was generated in the same period in 2024.

Initially, the plan to increase revenue by implementing a price increase seemed like it had little chance of success. But when you see people decide to seek alternatives and activity declines, you get the opposite effect.

The land-based casino sector is also feeling the impact 

Not only the online sector, but also the land-based casino sector is facing declining revenues. VAN Kansspelen is the trade association for regulated gambling providers in the Netherlands. 

Based on interim figures from KPMG (international accounting and consulting firm), they report that offline revenue has decreased by 7%. Tax revenue from the land-based sector has remained marginally positive so far, but according to director Daan Keij (VAN Kansspelen), further decline is on the horizon.

If the increase in gambling tax results in a much lower net revenue from gambling tax, many gaming halls will be forced to close.

VAN Kansspelen calls for a reduction in gambling tax 

At VAN Kansspelen they responded to the FD article on LinkedIn.

VAN Kansspelen: 

“Later this month, the caretaker government will decide which plans will be presented on Prinsjesdag. With these figures and facts, there’s only one rational conclusion to be drawn to prevent further damage: the reduction in gambling tax must be adjusted downwards, and certainly not upwards again.”

They clearly advocate for a reduction in gambling tax to benefit both players and legal providers. According to them, this will only benefit the entire sector, as the opposite has been achieved so far.

Increase of measures since legalization of online gambling October 2021

Within the sector, VNLOK chairman Björn Fuchs points to the increase of measures since the legalization of online gambling in October 2021 as the cause of this decline. 

The ban on untargeted advertising, the introduction of stricter playing limits, the increase to 34,2% and the expected increase to 37,8% from January 1, 2026, make the legal offer less attractive and therefore push players towards the illegal market.

Moreover, this increase causes legitimate providers to lower their payout percentages and limit bonuses. This makes illegal offers attractive to people, who no longer even see the potential risks. They become fixated on what illegal providers can offer them.

Financieel Dagblad (FD) also pays attention to the decline of the legal sector

Financieel Dagblad (FD) discussed this issue in its podcast, FD Dagkoers. FD journalist Jeroen Piersma calculated that the revenue from gambling tax will not amount to 1 billion euros, as we saw last year, but to 800 million euros.

He didn’t answer the question of how the cabinet plans to resolve this. He did, however, share his vision:

“That’s something either the caretaker government or its successor will have to figure out. They might not be able to raise the money, and they might have to come up with other measures to close the budget gap. It really seems like it won’t come from the gambling tax.”

Presenter Astrid Kersseboom also mentioned the expected lower revenue from gambling tax during the NPO Radio 1 Journaal. 

How does the Kansspelautoriteit currently view this situation?

The Ksa has confirmed the lower revenue from gambling tax. A spokesperson for the Ksa has already told FD that the revenue from gambling tax will indeed be lower: 

“We’re not going to reach that extra 200 million euros.”

The industry organizations previously warned about the effects: combining an increased tax rate with higher taxes and stricter regulations doesn’t automatically lead to higher tax revenues. On the contrary, we’re seeing a noticeable decline.

Earlier indications suggest lower gambling tax in 2025

First, let’s look back at last month. State Secretary Tjebbe van Oostenbruggen contradicted a report that estimated the increase in gambling tax would yield 70 million euros less for the state treasury than expected.

In the committee debate Nationale Fiscaliteit, he himself stuck to the original estimate that the increase would structurally yield an additional 200 million euros per year for the state treasury.

However, there were already earlier signals of the lower forecast. During the 2025 Spring Memorandum, expectations for gambling tax revenue were revised downward by 33 million euros.

The Standing Committee on Finance then asked Minister Eelco Heinen to explain why the expected tax revenue from gambling had been reduced so drastically. The minister explained that this was due to lower revenues from the previous year. This information was not yet available at the time of the budget memorandum.

Kansspelautoriteit has previously conducted an investigation 

The fact that the growth of the illegal market is a concern isn’t news to the Ksa, as they previously conducted research into how legal providers are affected by the illegal market. Their research revealed that half of the revenue generated in the Dutch online market goes to illegal providers.State Secretary Teun Struycken (Justice and Security) therefore previously called for a joint, structured European approach to tackling these criminals. According to him, these providers should be dealt with like other international criminal organizations, and it should be possible to tackle these parties, which often operate from abroad.