Jérôme Labarbe warns of the risks of prediction markets

The National Gaming Authority has issued a warning about the risks of prediction markets, particularly regarding addiction and the illusion of investment, as Jérôme Labarbe highlighted in a recent statement.

A quick rise in popularity

In recent years, prediction markets have attracted a growing number of users drawn by a simple promise: to predict events and make a profit from them. “Who will be the mayor of Paris? What will the temperature be in Tokyo tomorrow? Which team will win this match?” These are just some of the events on which players can bet via Polymarket or Kalshi.

The figures bear witness to the scale of the phenomenon. Between September 2025 and January 2026, the number of visits to these platforms from France rose from 200,000 to 800,000. In just a few months, visitor numbers quadrupled. This spectacular surge illustrates not only the appeal of these sites, but also their rapid uptake among the French public.

Even more striking is the fact that certain events linked to national news have generated considerable betting volumes. During the French local elections, the amounts wagered were in the region of $20 million.

However, these platforms are illegal in many European countries, including France and Belgium.

Under French law, an offer is considered gambling if it meets four criteria: it must be offered to the public, involve an element of chance, offer the prospect of a win, and require a financial stake. Yet, in France, gambling is in principle prohibited. Only certain exceptions are permitted: sports betting, horse racing betting and online poker, provided a licence is obtained from the National Gaming Authority. Prediction markets offer their games without authorisation.

Speaking to the media, Jérôme Labarbe, deputy director of enforcement and coordinator of the ANJ’s fight against illegal gambling, outlined the dangers associated with these platforms.

Addiction at the heart of concerns

One of the most worrying dangers lies in the increased risk of addiction. Prediction markets do not merely replicate the traditional mechanisms of gambling: they amplify them.

Users do not see themselves as gamblers, but as analysts, strategists capable of predicting the future. This illusion of competence boosts engagement and encourages them to take greater risks. The more users believe they understand the mechanisms, the more they gamble. And the more they gamble, the more they expose themselves to a creeping addiction.

This mechanism is reinforced by another illusion: that of easy gains. Much like cryptocurrency trading, these platforms give the impression that it is possible to get rich quickly.

The lack of regulation has direct consequences on behaviour. Unlike legal operators, these platforms offer no self-limitation tools. They are accessible at all times, without interruption.

Viral spread that amplifies risky behaviour

Prediction markets also benefit from high visibility on social media. Testimonials of quick wins, often highlighted, create a snowball effect. This viral spread plays a decisive role. It fuels the idea that success is within everyone’s reach.

This information imbalance encourages impulsive behaviour and increases exposure to risk.

Risks beyond addiction

Beyond addiction, prediction markets raise broader issues. By allowing people to bet on events, these platforms can influence behaviour. In some cases, they could encourage actions designed to alter the outcome of an event.

Jérôme Labarbe’s contribution highlights a reality that is often underestimated. Behind the promises of quick wins lie powerful mechanisms capable of influencing behaviour. In a world where information circulates at breakneck speed and opportunities seem endless, caution remains more necessary than ever.

Gambling on Polymarket in Belgium

In Belgium, the Gaming Commission officially banned Polymarket in early 2025, placing it on its blacklist of illegal sites.

Belgian regulators believe that Polymarket operates as an unlicensed betting operator, exposing users to significant risks. In practical terms, players have no protection: there are no self-exclusion mechanisms, no recourse in the event of a dispute, and funds are not secured.

Despite the ban and the blocking measures put in place, the platform continues to attract users, highlighting the limitations of national regulations when faced with globalised digital services.