Smart test aims to stop chaos in the gambling market

The Netherlands has been trying for years to get a grip on online gambling. Through rules, bans, and limits, the government hopes to protect gamblers. But the outcome is different. Legal operators are losing ground, while the illegal market is growing faster than ever. And the players? They will soon be further from help than ever before.

Peter-Paul de Goeij, former director of industry association NOGA, sounds the alarm in a sharp column on CasinoNieuws. According to him, politicians have made too many decisions based on emotion and haste, without properly studying their consequences. His solution? The waterbed test.

A waterbed under gambling policy

De Goeij calls it a “stacked waterbed effect.” The more pressure you put on the legal market, the more the water shifts, in this case, to illegal websites. What was meant to protect actually creates more risks. And that’s not a theory: it’s happening right now.

Instead of looking at the bigger picture, The Hague keeps piling up rules. Role models? Banned. Advertising? Banned. Bonuses? Restricted. Deposit limits? Introduced. On paper, these rules seem fine. But in practice, they drive players out of sight of regulators.

Illegal gambling sites rubbing their hands

Anyone searching on Google or TikTok will find illegal gambling sites where everything is allowed. No limits, no registration, no supervision. For many players — especially the enthusiastic or addicted ones — that’s appealing. They can do whatever they want there. And that’s exactly the problem.

The real problem gamblers disappear from view. No CRUKS, no warning system, no help. These are precisely the people the government was supposed to protect. But they now end up with operators who ignore the rules — and are often linked to money laundering or crime.

Young people and sports fans more easily tempted

Young people are also easy targets. In Belgium, it was recently revealed that 20% of 18- to 20-year-olds gamble illegally. Often, they don’t even realize they’re on banned sites. It seems exciting, but they only understand the risks when it’s too late.

And sports fans? In Belgium, they still see gambling ads in football stadiums despite a ban. Rules without enforcement are useless. The situation in the Netherlands proves the same: strict policies only work if you take the whole picture into account.

So what exactly is the waterbed test?

The waterbed test is a kind of pre-check. Before introducing a new rule, you first examine its effect on the entire market, not just on paper, but in practice. Does the problem shift? Does it get worse? If so, you need to adjust the rule before it takes effect.

Together with a “cumulative impact test,” this assessment shows whether the stacking of measures causes unintended damage. It’s about finding a balance between protection, the market share of legal operators (the so-called channelization), and tax revenue. Without that balance, you get what we’re seeing now: chaos.

Fewer legal players, less protection

When online gambling was legalized in the Netherlands in 2021, the goal was to keep at least 80% of players within the legal circuit. By 2025, that percentage has fallen below 50%. The legal market is shrinking, while the black market is thriving. And that’s extremely dangerous.

People who gamble legally are under supervision. If they go too far, the casino can intervene. But in the grey circuit, no one is responsible. That’s where vulnerable people are exploited for profit. That was never the intention of the law, but it’s happening now.

Time for a reset

De Goeij isn’t calling for fewer rules. He’s calling for smarter rules. And above all: well-founded rules. With the waterbed test, policy could finally be based on facts instead of emotions. “Measure first, then decide,” he says.

With a new law on the horizon, there’s now an opportunity. State Secretary Struycken wants to thoroughly amend the Gambling Act. If nothing changes, we’ll make the same mistakes again. But if the waterbed test is introduced, the policy could finally start working, not just for the government, but above all for the people.

Gamblers must be able to trust their government

Anyone who places a bet, whether occasionally or often, deserves protection. But not by being driven into the dark corners of the internet. The legal market must remain attractive precisely to keep gambling risks manageable.

“Banning alone doesn’t work. You have to understand where the behavior comes from. Only then can you address it. Otherwise, you’re just mopping with the tap still running.”