Dopamine and speculation: The dark side of Pokémon and TCGs

In an incisive opinion column published on Legaal Nederlands Casino, expert Armijn Meijer draws a disturbing parallel between the trading card industry, in particular the Pokémon card game, and the psychological mechanisms of the casino. Meijer points the finger at the impunity enjoyed by franchises such as Pokémon, which market dopamine in sachets to young people. 

The gambling industry knows all about the thrill of risk, but it is not the only one to exploit it. Armijn Meijer, a well-known figure in the industry, took to the stage on Legaal Nederlands Casino to share his personal experience. Not in front of a slot machine, but in front of packs of Pokémon cards. In his editorial he accurately describes the phenomenon of “pulling”, the action of opening a sealed pack in the feverish hope of finding a rare card.

The mechanics of “Pulling” or the adrenaline rush of opening a pack

For him, it all started during a trip to Japan, which he renamed Pokémon Country. There, cards are everywhere, in Pokémon Centres, but also in vending machines and shops.

“I bought Pokémon cards in Tokyo, neatly sealed in a big Pokémon Store, but also via vending machines and shops where you don’t know which way to turn. I loved it.”

For Meijer, who admits to having felt that itch that is characteristic of punters, the observation is unmistakable. The opening ritual, the sound of the plastic film being torn and the progressive sliding of the cards faithfully reproduce the sensations of gambling. It’s not the pack of cards itself that’s the target, but rather the method of distribution based on complete randomness.

Casino codes applied to toys

Meijer’s analysis shows that the psychological ingredients between a lottery product and a trading card booster are identical. It’s not roulette or blackjack, but the cognitive levers are the same:

• Variable reward: The buyer is completely unaware of the value of what he is acquiring, creating a dopaminergic expectation.
• “Near-miss”: The stimulating frustration of passing very close to the coveted card, encouraging the buyer to buy a pack immediately. Because it might be in the next one.
• Social proof: the explosion of packet-opening videos on social networks, which validate and normalise this behaviour.
• FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out): The fear of missing out on a limited series, skilfully orchestrated by publishers.

According to the author, this cocktail is exactly what makes gaming products so powerful. The major difference lies in the target audience. Where casinos are forbidden to minors, these machines are sold as harmless to children whose brains are still developing.

From the playground to financial speculation

Armijn Meijer also highlights a worrying trend linked to the 30th anniversary of the Pokémon franchise in 2026: the transformation of the toy into a financial asset. He cites the example of influencer Logan Paul and his Pikachu card, valued at several million dollars. A card that, according to Guiness World Records, changed hands for $5,275,000. It is due to go back up for auction next February, with prices ranging from $7 million to $12 million.

“Do you understand what’s going on here? A children’s product has become an alternative investment category. And it’s not just fun for collectors. It changes the whole feeling around packages: every package opening also becomes a mini-investment, a mini-lottery, a mini-adrenaline shot with resale potential.”

In his view, the hope is no longer just for fun, but also for money. This speculative mentality, fuelled by social networks, inculcates very early on the idea that you can get rich by chance, a notion that regulators are nevertheless trying to deconstruct within the framework of responsible gambling.

Towards a requirement for transparency?

Meijer’s column does not necessarily advocate total prohibition, but it does question the hypocrisy of current society. If we agree to strictly regulate advertising and access to casinos in order to protect vulnerable groups, why do we turn a blind eye to products that use the same emotional appeal to children?

Pokémon cards are literally at children’s eye level. The packs are gift items. Prices vary from store to store, and there’s no clear information about the chances of getting a particular card. And everyone thinks that’s normal, because it’s just a card game for children.

“But if we’re honest: it’s also a product that runs on the same emotional engine as gambling.”

As Meijer concludes, it’s time to realise that an entire generation is currently learning, in a playful way, that the thrill of risk is a commodity like any other. That’s why he’s calling for a rethink on the subject.

The Belgian paradox: strict regulation vs over-the-counter

This opinion is particularly relevant in Belgium. Belgium is a pioneer in the fight against gambling in video games, having banned Loot Boxes from popular titles such as FIFA. The mobile game Pokémon TCG Pocket is also banned in Belgium. However, a legislative inconsistency persists when it comes to physical products.

In Belgium, any child can go to a large toy store, supermarket or local bookshop to buy Pokémon boosters, as well as the new Disney Lorcana cards or the classic Magic: The Gathering, which is aimed more at teenagers. These products are often strategically placed at children’s eye level or near checkouts, encouraging impulse buying.

Unlike gambling operators, who must comply with strict age limits, display prevention messages and submit to Gambling Commission controls, card publishers operate without any transparency constraints. No rate of return to the player (RTP) is clearly displayed, and no spending limit is imposed, even though the purchase mechanism is based on the uncertainty of winning.

For the time being, no discussions have been initiated on this subject in Belgium. These games therefore remain perfectly legal in Belgium.