The gambling platform Polymarket has announced that it will not pay out to users who placed bets on a US invasion of Venezuela, despite the spectacular arrest of President Nicolás Maduro by US troops. This decision has angered users who thought they had won a million-dollar jackpot.
Just before the raid, an anonymous gambler bet $30,000 on the prediction that Maduro would be deposed before 31 January 2026. When news of his arrest broke on Saturday, that bet appeared to be worth over $430,000. But according to Polymarket, the event does not meet the conditions for a payout.
No invasion, says Polymarket
Polymarket states that a payout is only valid if it concerns ‘a US military operation with the aim of establishing control’. And according to the platform, this is not the case. Donald Trump‘s statement that the US is now ‘running’ Venezuela is not sufficient, according to the site. It would be a one-off action, not an actual invasion.
This distinction has hit many users hard. In total, more than $10.5 million has been wagered on scenarios in which the US would invade Venezuela. Most bets ran until the end of January 2026. Now that it appears that the capture of a head of state is not sufficient for a payout, many gamblers feel cheated.
‘Words lose their meaning’
The platform is now flooded with complaints.
‘Polymarket has become arbitrary,’ writes a user named Skinner. ‘Words are being rewritten at random, facts ignored. It is absurd that the violent arrest of a president is not considered an invasion.’
This criticism comes at a painful moment for the company. Polymarket only received permission to operate legally in the United States last year and is trying to gain a foothold in the rapidly growing market of so-called prediction markets. These are platforms where people bet on political events, sports results or even the weather.
Close ties with Trump’s entourage
Adding fuel to the fire: Donald Trump Jr., the son of the American president, is an advisor to Polymarket. This fuels speculation about a possible conflict of interest, especially since it concerns sensitive international military action in which his father is directly involved.
Polymarket does not have a licence in Belgium. Nevertheless, the platform is active in several countries, often through legal grey areas. The case surrounding the Venezuela bet could change that, especially if regulators start to intervene in the question of how these types of markets should be controlled.