New tax measure: Holland Casino possibly offline-only
A new study by Atlas Research shows that the future looks bleak for gaming arcades and casinos, both online and in the physical world.
The gambling tax is going up to 37.8%, and that means serious problems. Companies have to take big steps to survive this, but for some providers there is simply no solution in sight.
This study was commissioned by the Ministry of Justice and Security. Atlas Research spoke to various people from the gambling industry and delved into the figures to see what will happen. It is clear: for many companies the prospects are anything but rosy. Gaming arcades in particular are having a hard time.
Holland Casino and online providers in trouble
For Holland Casino and the online providers it all remains rather vague. They don’t really know what to expect, because new rules are coming in quick succession. They will have to take drastic measures in any case, but the question is what exactly they are. Some companies are even considering leaving the market, like Tombola did earlier this week due to the tax increase.
Holland Casino, with both physical locations and a growing online branch, may have to consider stopping online gambling altogether. The costs keep rising, and the margins are getting smaller. No one knows exactly what the consequences will be, but one thing is certain: it will be tight for the big players.
Slot machine arcades are pessimistic
It is even worse for slot machine arcades. Most companies are already struggling, and then this tax increase is on top of that. Many providers are on the verge of closing their doors. They still have loans and debts outstanding that they are paying off, and with these additional costs, it seems inevitable that a lot of slot machines will disappear.
| Market outcome | Plausible scenario | Minimum scenario | Maximum scenario |
|---|---|---|---|
| BSR % | 1% | -3% | 1% |
| BSR nominal | € 15,1 million | – € 36,8 million | € 15,1 million |
| Gambling tax | € 77,2 million | € 39,6 million | € 77,2 million |
| Charity contributions | – € 15,5 million | – € 30,6 million | – € 2,9 million |
| Sport contributions | – € 7,7 million | – € 7,7 million | – € 7,7 million |
| State contributions | € 3,4 million | – € 3,2 millionn | € 3,4 million |
| Result | – € 28,2 million | – € 32,1 million | – € 24,1 million |
Atlas Research is clear: there are no realistic scenarios in which the tax increase can be absorbed. Even if companies make drastic changes, they will remain in the red. This means that there will be fewer arcades, and those that remain will have to try to survive in a shrinking market. It is a harsh reality for a sector that was already struggling.
Less money for sports and charities
But that is not all. The tax increase also affects other sectors, such as lotteries and charities. Lotteries such as the Dutch Lottery and the Charity Lotteries can partly compensate for the higher tax by paying less money to charities or sports. They are now often above the legally required contribution percentage, but if they lower that, less money will be left for society.
Atlas Research predicts that this will cost a total of around 28.2 million euros. That money could otherwise have gone to charities and sports clubs. It is a major blow for organisations that depend on this income to do their work.