Google employee caught out by his Polymarket bets  

A Google software engineer, Michele Spagnuolo, is the subject of a criminal complaint in the United States. The authorities accuse him of exploiting internal, non-public company information to place winning bets on Polymarket.  

A case that began behind the scenes at Google  

According to US prosecutors, between October and December 2025, Michele Spagnuolo allegedly had access to confidential Google data relating to the annual rankings of the most popular searches. These rankings list the people and topics that have seen the greatest increase in searches on the search engine.  

According to the complaint filed in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, only a select group of Google employees had access to this data prior to its official publication. The company is said to have kept this information under embargo, notably because these rankings fuel a highly publicised annual communications campaign that generates media attention and traffic.  

Polymarket launches betting markets on Google searches  

In autumn 2025, Polymarket opened markets relating to future Google rankings. Users could bet on who would appear in the top five spots for the most trending searches.   

In theory, these markets were based on collective prediction. In practice, they relied on information held by Google prior to publication.   

According to US authorities, Michele Spagnuolo allegedly accessed Google’s internal data and then placed several bets linked to these rankings. The charges relate in particular to bets concerning the rapper Kendrick Lamar and the artist d4vd, whose names were among the personalities tracked by the markets open on Polymarket.  

FBI investigators link Michele Spagnuolo to a Polymarket account named AlphaRaccoon. According to the complaint, this account was allegedly used shortly after accessing Google’s internal data. The authorities believe that the bets were not based on mere intuition, but on prior knowledge of the upcoming results. The account is said to have made approximately $1.2 million in profits on markets linked to Google’s search rankings. In total, positions worth nearly $2.75 million were reportedly taken on around 25 different results.  

Serious charges before the US courts 

The proceedings were brought before the US District Court for the Southern District of New York. The charges brought by the US authorities are serious: commodities fraud, wire fraud and money laundering.  

Prosecutors are not limiting their focus to the bets themselves. They also allege that Michele Spagnuolo attempted to conceal the source of the proceeds once the transactions were complete. According to the complaint, several cryptocurrency wallets, exchanges between digital assets and services offering greater privacy were allegedly used to conceal the source of the funds.  

Investigators are also seeking to determine whether the proceeds from the bets were moved in such a way as to make them harder to trace. The FBI has asked the court for an arrest warrant for Michele Spagnuolo.  

Google, for its part, has told the BBC that it is cooperating fully with the investigation. The company has also stated that the software engineer in question has been suspended from his duties.  

A case that goes beyond Google  

The Spagnuolo case comes at a time of already heightened tension surrounding prediction markets. Since their rise in popularity, several cases have fuelled suspicions of insider trading.   

Several new accounts are said to have accurately predicted certain events related to the war in Iran, including a US attack on Iran and a temporary ceasefire. These accurate predictions have fuelled speculation about the possible existence of inside information used before it became public knowledge.  

Another case concerns an American soldier, Gannon van Dyke, who is suspected of having bet on the departure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro whilst allegedly being involved in the operation in question. He denies any transactions based on insider information. According to reports, he is said to have won around $400,000 from these bets. 

Belgium bans these unlicensed platforms  

In Belgium, these prediction platforms are regarded as unlicensed online gambling operators. They are banned.  

The charges against Michele Spagnuolo pose a major challenge for Polymarket and other platforms: their credibility depends on the premise that all participants take comparable risks. If some are able to use confidential information, the market ceases to be a space for prediction and becomes a venue for asymmetric exploitation.