Polymarket changes its strategy in Europe
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26 Sep 2026 •
Reading time: 3 minutes
Banned in Belgium since January 2025, Polymarket is attempting to have its prediction markets recognised as financial instruments rather than games of chance.
A new strategy to circumvent the regulatory headache
Polymarket is now trying to convince the European authorities that its contracts should fall under financial regulation.
In the European Union, games of chance remain largely regulated at national level. A company wishing to offer its services in several countries must therefore deal with different regulators, licences and legislation.
Recognition as a provider of financial products could offer Polymarket a more harmonised regulatory environment. However, this solution is far from guaranteeing its return to European users.
Why Polymarket poses a problem for regulators
The way Polymarket operates differs from that of a traditional betting site, even though the financial outcome still depends on an uncertain future event.
On the platform, users place bets on whether an event will occur. This may relate to a sporting competition, an economic decision, a financial development or even a political event. The value of the contract then fluctuates according to supply and demand. The price thus reflects the probability that market participants assign to the event occurring.
It is this market mechanism that now constitutes one of Polymarket’s main arguments in favour of classifying its activity as a financial service.
Europe points out that a change of status is not enough
On 3 July 2026, the European Securities and Markets Authority published a guidance note on the rise of prediction markets.
It describes event-based contracts as products whose financial outcome depends on a binary answer to a question concerning a future event. A specified payment is made when the event occurs, whilst no payment is made if it does not.
However, the European authority emphasises a crucial point: the legal classification depends on the structure of the contract and the nature of the event in question. The same product may therefore, depending on the circumstances, fall within the scope of financial instruments whilst also being regarded as a bet under national law.
The pitfall of binary options
The main obstacle could stem from the regulation of binary options.
Where certain event-based contracts are regarded as financial instruments and operate on a binary outcome, European rules on binary options may apply. However, the marketing, distribution or sale of certain binary options to retail clients is subject to particularly stringent restrictions in Europe.
According to the guidelines issued by the European authority, a firm distributing event-based contracts within the European Union that are regarded as financial instruments must hold the necessary authorisations as an investment firm. This requirement may also apply where the products are not intended for retail clients.
In Belgium, Polymarket remains banned
Polymarket has been on the Gaming Commission’s blacklist since 30 January 2025. The platform does not hold the necessary authorisation to legally offer its services to Belgian players.
To date, the steps taken with the European financial authorities have not altered this situation. As Polymarket’s contracts continue to be regarded as games of chance in Belgium, Belgian legislation remains applicable and authorisations from the Gaming Commission are still required.