Ballon d’Or 2026: $200,000 in suspicious winnings 

Harry Kane‘s Ballon d’Or 2026 victory has been overshadowed by a suspicious betting scandal. Twelve recently created accounts on Polymarket reportedly earned nearly $200,000 in profits by correctly predicting the top five players in the final rankings. 

Ballon d’Or 2026 at the center of a legal investigation 

The ceremony on October 26, 2026, was supposed to celebrate English striker Harry Kane’s victory. However, just days after the prestigious trophy was awarded, unusual financial transactions have become the focus of attention. 

On October 31, the Amaury Group, owner of France Football and organizer of the Ballon d’Or, announced that it was in the process of filing a legal complaint. Investigations have also been launched to determine whether confidential information had been leaked before the official rankings were revealed. 

This response follows revelations by financial news outlet Upside, which identified remarkably accurate bets placed on Polymarket before the ceremony. At this stage, no fraud has been proven in court, and no individual responsibility has been publicly established. 

Twelve accounts reportedly won nearly $200,000 

The amounts involved have raised questions. According to Upside’s investigation, twelve recently created Polymarket accounts collectively wagered more than $264,000 on the men’s Ballon d’Or rankings. Their bets focused in particular on the identities and exact order of the top five players. After the results were announced, these transactions reportedly generated nearly $200,000 in profits. 

However, it is primarily the circumstances surrounding these bets that have raised suspicions. According to information reported by British newspaper The Guardian, seven of the twelve accounts had not participated in any other prediction market. Six reportedly began placing bets less than fifteen minutes after their creation. Several accounts also allegedly wagered significant amounts on highly specific outcomes. The earliest transactions date back to early October, several weeks before the ceremony. 

Why are these bets on Harry Kane raising suspicions? 

Unlike a football match, whose outcome remains uncertain until the final whistle, the Ballon d’Or rankings are determined before the ceremony. Once the votes have been counted, the results are already known but remain confidential until their official announcement. 

This particular situation theoretically creates an opportunity to exploit advance knowledge of the results. Someone with access to the rankings could take advantage of this information by placing favorable financial positions on a platform offering bets on the winners. 

In the case of the Ballon d’Or 2026, investigators will need to determine whether the rankings were leaked prematurely, who had access to them, and whether certain Polymarket users actually benefited from non-public information. The unusual success of several accounts does not, on its own, constitute sufficient evidence of wrongdoing. 

Unusual market movements observed before the ceremony 

According to Numerama, the probabilities displayed on Polymarket fluctuated significantly throughout October, particularly for certain Ballon d’Or favorites. 

On this platform, prices change according to users’ financial positions. When large amounts of money are wagered on a particular outcome, the probability assigned to that result by the market can rise rapidly. 

These fluctuations may have several explanations: publicly available information, rumors, speculative strategies, or the potential use of confidential information. 

Other accounts, including some reportedly active in Ballon d’Or-related prediction markets for several years, also attracted attention because of their betting patterns. 

However, none of these elements proves that organized manipulation took place. 

Polymarket has been banned in Belgium since January 2025 

Polymarket is a prediction market platform that allows users to wager money on future events. Its markets cover sports, politics, economics, and cultural awards, among other topics. 

Unlike traditional sports betting operators, its system relies on contracts whose value fluctuates according to supply and demand. Transactions also involve cryptocurrencies. 

In Belgium, Polymarket has been on the Belgian Gaming Commission’s blacklist since January 30, 2025. The platform therefore does not have the necessary authorization to offer these activities to Belgian players. 

What are the consequences for the Ballon d’Or 2026? 

For France Football and the Amaury Group, the main concerns are the confidentiality of the results and the credibility of the award. A premature leak of the rankings could undermine confidence in the organization of the ceremony, even if it does not necessarily mean that the votes or results were manipulated. 

For now, Harry Kane remains the winner of the Ballon d’Or 2026, while suspicions focus on the possible disclosure of the rankings before the ceremony rather than any proven fraud in the awarding of the trophy.