FIFA lifts Balogun’s suspension for Belgium clash following pressure from Trump
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6 Jul 2026 •
Reading time: 3 minutes
FIFA lifts Folarin Balogun’s suspension: US striker cleared to play against Belgium, World Cup betting markets react immediately.
FIFA has caused a stir in the run-up to the World Cup match between the United States and Belgium. US striker Folarin Balogun has been declared eligible to play in the match against the Red Devils after all, despite his red card in the previous round against Bosnia and Herzegovina. This decision was taken following intervention by US President Trump, who rang FIFA.
Balogun was sent off in the 64th minute during the United States’ 2–0 victory over Bosnia and Herzegovina. Normally, a red card automatically results in a one-match ban. However, FIFA decided to suspend the implementation of that ban, meaning Balogun will be allowed to play against Belgium in Seattle on Monday evening.
Belgian Football Association surprised by FIFA’s decision
The Royal Belgian Football Association (RBFA) expressed surprise at the decision. According to the RBFA, FIFA is basing its decision on Article 27 of the FIFA Disciplinary Code, which allows the Disciplinary Committee to suspend the enforcement of a sanction.
Belgium, however, points to Article 66.4 of the same code, which states that a red card automatically results in a suspension for the next match. This automatic suspension is also said to be explicitly included in the World Cup regulations. The RBFA is therefore exploring “all possible options” to protect Belgium’s interests and the principle of fair play.
Betting odds and Polymarket react
The decision had not only sporting consequences but also a direct impact on the betting markets. Once it became clear that Balogun might be available after all, the betting odds rose. On Polymarket too, a prediction market emerged shortly after the red card regarding whether Balogun would be allowed to play against Belgium.
It is striking that the market seemed almost immediately certain of a return. According to the information provided, YES stood at around 98% at one point, meaning that traders considered the likelihood of FIFA suspending the ban to be extremely high.
For those who bought ‘YES’ on Polymarket on the question of whether Balogun would be available against Belgium, the FIFA decision means that they will, in principle, win as soon as the market is officially settled at ‘YES’.
An important point to note here is the difference between the purchase price and the payout. A winning share on Polymarket pays out $1 upon settlement. For example, someone who bought YES at $0.98 paid $98 for 100 shares and will receive $100 upon settlement of YES. The profit is then just $2, excluding any costs.
If someone bought €99 worth of YES positions at a price of €0.98, that amounts to approximately 101.02 shares. The payout would then be around €101.02, with a profit of approximately €2.02. For people in Belgium, however, Polymarket is now off-limits.
Timing of journalistic interest
The sporting question is clear: should Balogun have been suspended according to the rules, or was FIFA entitled to suspend the sanction?
But the betting market raises a second question. Why was the Polymarket market already so convinced of an exceptional FIFA decision, whilst Belgium maintains that this decision contravenes the World Cup regulations?
That in itself does not prove insider knowledge. Nevertheless, the timing, price movements, trading volumes and largest positions make this market particularly interesting. Especially as YES was already trading at around 98 per cent immediately after the red card, suggesting that traders were virtually certain that Balogun would still be allowed to play.
For Belgium, the decision comes at a sensitive time. The Red Devils are set to face the United States tonight, a team that, thanks to FIFA, will still be able to field a key striker. What began as a red card in the previous round has thus developed into a wider debate about FIFA rules, fair play and the influence of betting markets on the World Cup.