Belgian loses €7.5 million on prediction markets during the World Cup  

The name Leeeroyjenkins is currently doing the rounds in the international iGaming sector. During the World Cup, the anonymous user staked no less than 7.5 million euros on a Red Devils victory against Egypt via the prediction platform Polymarket, according to Tijd.be.  

Had Belgium won, the player would have received around 11.4 million euros. However, the match ended in a draw, meaning the entire stake was lost.  

This spectacular loss is not an isolated incident. It underlines the rapid rise of so-called prediction markets, a new form of online betting that is becoming increasingly popular and is now also making its mark on the Belgian gambling market.  

Prediction markets are gaining ground  

Whereas for years punters turned to traditional bookmakers such as Napoleon Games, Unibet or Betfirst, an increasing number are now opting for platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.  

These companies do not present themselves as bookmakers, but as prediction markets. Users do not bet against a bookmaker, but buy and sell, as it were, ‘shares’ in the outcome of an event. The price is determined by supply and demand, much like on a stock exchange.  

As a result, transaction costs are often considerably lower than with traditional bookmakers. 

During the World Cup, these platforms appear to be attracting huge sums of money. According to estimates, more than 5 billion dollars has already been wagered via Polymarket and Kalshi alone.  

Belgian players are also finding their way onto the platforms  

Although prediction markets are not licensed in Belgium, more and more Belgians appear to be visiting the platforms nonetheless.  

According to figures from the Gaming Commission, an average of 70,000 Belgian internet users visited Polymarket and Kalshi in recent months. During the first week of the World Cup alone, more than 30,000 visits were recorded.  

The platforms are not officially accessible to Belgian players, but users appear to be able to bypass the blocks relatively easily using methods such as VPN connections.  

Young people are turning away from the legal market  

According to the Belgian gambling sector, this development poses a growing problem.  

Napoleon Games states that younger players in particular have turned to illegal alternatives following the increase in the minimum age for online gambling from 18 to 21.  

The expectation that these players would return to legal providers after their 21st birthday does not, according to the provider, appear to be materialising for the time being.  

This is creating exactly the opposite effect to what the legislator intended: instead of receiving better protection, young players are turning to platforms that operate outside Belgian regulatory oversight.  

No Belgian protection  

This entails certain risks. 

Prediction markets do not hold a Belgian licence and are therefore not subject to supervision by the Gaming Commission. Players are generally unable to rely on the safeguards that do apply to licensed operators, such as responsible gambling checks, age verification or national protection measures.  

Moreover, many of these platforms operate using cryptocurrency, meaning that transactions largely take place outside the traditional financial system.  

The new competitor to bookmakers  

Pressure on traditional bookmakers is mounting worldwide.  

Not only are they losing turnover to prediction markets, but they also point out that the two types of provider operate under different regulatory frameworks. 

Whilst licensed bookmakers must comply with extensive obligations regarding advertising, player protection, identity checks and responsible gambling, prediction markets in some countries are subject to financial supervision or operate from jurisdictions where regulations are much more limited.  

According to the sector, this creates an uneven playing field.  

FIFA chooses a high-profile partner  

The fact that prediction markets are being taken increasingly seriously is also evident from a notable development during the World Cup. 

FIFA has entered into a partnership with ADI PredictStreet, a company operating in the prediction platform market. This gives this relatively new sector a prominent place at the world’s biggest football tournament.  

Critics fear that such partnerships contribute to the further normalisation of platforms that are not permitted in many European countries.  

Belgium must remain vigilant  

For Belgium, the rise of prediction markets presents a new challenge.  

In recent years, the Gaming Commission has invested heavily in tackling illegal online casinos, but prediction markets operate partly in a legal grey area and are, moreover, becoming increasingly easy to find via the internet and social media.  

Furthermore, recent research shows that AI chatbots and search engines also regularly direct users to unlicensed providers. As a result, it is becoming increasingly easy for consumers to end up on platforms operating outside Belgian regulatory oversight.  

More than just a spectacular bet  

Leeeroyjenkins’ loss of 7.5 million euros is undoubtedly spectacular, but it tells only part of the story.  

The real development is taking place behind the scenes. Prediction markets are growing at breakneck speed, attracting billions in stakes and gaining popularity, particularly amongst young players. 

This sends an important signal to the Belgian gambling market. Not only bookmakers, but also policymakers and regulators will have to consider how this new generation of gambling platforms should be regulated.  

For as long as illegal or unlicensed prediction markets become increasingly accessible, there is a risk that a growing number of Belgian players will find themselves outside the protection of the regulated market.