$128 million staked on the next French president
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10 Sep 2026 •
Reading time: 4 minutes
With seven months to go until the French presidential election in April 2027, a market dedicated to the next occupant of the Élysée Palace is already attracting considerable trading volumes. On Polymarket, more than $128 million has been traded on the outcome of the election. Yet the platform has been officially blocked in France since July 2026.
$128 million even before the election
As of 6 September 2026, Polymarket’s market dedicated to the next French presidential election totalled exactly $128,026,232 in trading volume, according to the platform’s public data.
The figure is staggering, but it must be interpreted correctly. These 128 million dollars do not represent a sum currently tied up in the election result. It is the cumulative volume of all transactions carried out on this market since it opened.
Its activity has nevertheless grown significantly. By mid-July 2026, the volume had exceeded 111 million dollars. A few months earlier, in May, the combined volume of all markets dedicated to French politics stood at around $80 million in cumulative transactions.
This surge in activity comes even though the presidential election is not due until April 2027.
How does Polymarket actually work?
Polymarket is a decentralised prediction market where users can trade contracts linked to real-world events. It operates on the Polygon blockchain, and transactions are settled using USDC, a digital asset designed to maintain a value close to that of the US dollar.
Markets generally take the form of a question with a binary outcome. When the market settles, a share corresponding to the correct outcome is worth one dollar, whilst one corresponding to the incorrect outcome is worth nothing.
The price at which these shares trade prior to the event is therefore interpreted as an implied probability. A share priced at 0.27 dollars means, for example, that the market assigns a probability of approximately 27 per cent to that event.
Unlike the traditional operation of a bookmaker, no odds are directly set by a betting firm. Prices fluctuate according to the buys and sells made by participants in an order book.
Transactions are executed via automated computer contracts. Once the event has concluded, a decentralised system called UMA verifies the result using data sources before winnings are distributed automatically.
Why has France blocked Polymarket?
Trading relating to the French election continues on a large scale, even though Polymarket is no longer legally accessible from France.
The reason given is legal. According to the French authority, Polymarket promotes an illegal gambling service. Prediction markets do not have the necessary licence in France and are treated by the regulator as an unauthorised gambling activity.
The issue is not limited to the possibility of wagering money. The regulator is also concerned about the way in which probabilities are presented.
The real-time display of odds on the homepage is considered a means of promoting unauthorised gambling. According to information provided by the source, such promotion constitutes an offence in France that could result in a fine of 100,000 euros.
The lack of identity verification is a cause for concern for the regulator
The National Gaming Authority also criticises Polymarket for the absence of a mandatory identity verification procedure.
This difference is not insignificant. Identity verification makes it possible, in particular, to check users’ ages, ensure a degree of tax traceability and verify the identities of those participating in the markets.
Polymarket’s decentralised architecture thus finds itself at odds with the requirements of French law applicable to gambling.
A criminal investigation opened in May 2026
The integrity of certain markets offered on Polymarket has already raised suspicions.
On 4 May 2026, an investigation was launched by the section of the Paris Public Prosecutor’s Office responsible for combating cybercrime. It was entrusted to the Anti-Cybercrime Office. This investigation is separate from the case concerning the French presidential election, but it forms part of the regulatory and legal context surrounding the platform.
France is far from being an isolated case in Europe
The clash between Polymarket and the French authorities is part of a much broader European trend.
In May 2026, Spain blocked Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi, citing its gambling regulations.
Several other European countries have also blocked or restricted prediction markets: Germany, Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Switzerland, Greece, Ukraine and the Czech Republic.
A very different approach in the United States
After acquiring a platform authorised by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Polymarket was able to resume operations for US participants in December 2025 under regulatory supervision. However, access still varies from state to state.