ANJ algorithm reveals the scale of problem gambling

On 13 May 2026, the National Gambling Authority presented the initial results of its algorithm designed to better identify problem gamblers. The figures reveal a worrying rise in the number of players affected and their share of operators’ gross gaming revenue.

A warning sign for the entire gambling sector

According to initial estimates by the National Gaming Authority, the algorithm it has developed has identified 600,000 players with a high probability of being problem gamblers. This figure represents 8.7% of all registered players. Among them, around 300,000 are said to be in such a clear-cut situation that the regulator deems it imperative for operators to identify them.

The most significant data does not concern only the number of players. It also relates to the sector’s economic model. These players generated €1.2 billion in gross gaming revenue, or 60% of total gross revenue. This proportion is reported to have been rising steadily since 2023.

Excessive gambling is not a marginal phenomenon in online and account-based gambling. It accounts for a significant proportion of the market’s revenue, which underscores the urgent need for more effective identification.

A priority enshrined in the regulator’s strategy

The ANJ had already placed the reduction of excessive or pathological gambling at the heart of its 2024–2026 strategic plan.

This priority directly concerns gambling operators, whom the regulator requires to comply with their legal obligation to identify and support players. This obligation also involves taking action with regard to the players concerned. Support can take several forms: telephone calls, offers of gambling moderators, tailored limits, referral to support organisations or treatment centres, or even the closure of player accounts.

The first step is to detect more problematic situations. The next step is to ensure that identification does not remain a mere statistical exercise, with no concrete consequences for those affected.

Why an algorithm had become necessary

During its annual review of action plans aimed at preventing excessive or pathological gambling, the ANJ noted an increase in online identification measures. The number of excessive gamblers identified by operators tripled between 2024 and 2025, rising from 31,000 to 89,000. However, this improvement is still considered insufficient. In the Authority’s view, the figures reported by operators remain inconsistent with the size of their player base and with prevalence studies. 

To objectify its compliance requirements, the ANJ has developed an algorithm capable of identifying problem gamblers within the online gambling player base. The scope covers licensed online operators, as well as online gambling offered by La Française des Jeux and Pari Mutuel Urbain.

The tool is first intended to help operators offering account-based gambling meet their identification obligations. It is then intended to enable the regulator to assess more accurately the expected effort required to detect and reduce the gross gaming revenue generated by these players.

The ANJ specifies, however, that this algorithm is not intended to measure the exact number of problem gamblers. It does not replace barometric surveys conducted among the general population. Rather, it serves as a benchmark for assessing trends and comparing identification efforts.

The algorithm was developed from 2024 onwards. The ANJ drew on online gaming data from player accounts held with licensed operators, La Française des Jeux and Pari Mutuel Urbain. This data is transmitted continuously to the regulator to enable it to carry out its duties.

The tool also draws on scientific literature. In 2025, the Authority presented it to operators and organised a consultation. The system uses 23 risk indicators or criteria to generate a unique score for each player based on their financial transactions, gambling moderators, activity, frequency of play and history. Based on the score obtained, players are divided into four categories: recreational player, moderate-risk player, excessive player and clearly excessive player.

The algorithm’s performance has been validated and measured against the Canadian Problem Gambling Index, under the supervision of a scientific committee comprising recognised researchers. This committee includes Jean-Michel Costes, a research associate at the Research Chair in Gaming Studies at Concordia University in Montreal; Amandine Luquiens, a professor in the Addiction Department at Nîmes University Hospital; Gaëlle Challet-Bouju, a hospital research engineer at the Nantes University Hospital, and Sylvia Kairouz, a professor and director of the Research Chair on Gambling Studies at Concordia University in Montreal.

Results that go beyond mere market growth

Initial data from the algorithm highlights two worrying trends. The first concerns the rise in the number of problem gamblers. In the second half of 2025, 600,000 gamblers were identified as having a high probability of being problem gamblers.

This rise could be partly explained by overall market growth, but the number of problem gamblers has increased faster than the total number of gamblers.

The second trend concerns the contribution of these players to operators’ turnover. The €1.2 billion in gross gaming revenue generated by problem gamblers accounts for 60% of the total. This share has also been rising steadily since 2023.

An optional tool for operators, a benchmark for the regulator

For operators, the algorithm is not imposed as a mandatory requirement. The ANJ makes it available to them in a fully transparent manner. They can use it as a compliance barometer to check whether their own level of identification of problem gamblers is adequate. The tool can also be used to complement internal algorithms already developed by operators. This approach allows companies in the sector some organisational flexibility, whilst establishing a common benchmark.

For the regulator, the algorithm serves as a valuable benchmark. It will enable trends to be monitored and the effectiveness of measures to prevent excessive or pathological gambling to be assessed. The ANJ points out that this is the primary objective of the government’s gambling policy, and that operators must contribute to achieving it.

The challenge regarding retail outlets remains unresolved

The warning issued by the ANJ is not limited to online gambling. Isabelle Falque-Pierrotin also emphasises the need to extend identification efforts to retail outlets. In her view, it appears necessary for this identification to also be carried out in these physical locations, an objective that the Authority has been asking the two monopolies to pursue since 2024.

For the ANJ, the new tool represents both a measurement instrument, a compliance lever and a means of exerting pressure. It provides the regulator with a more precise basis for holding operators to account.