Gambling tax increase fails – brings in hardly any extra revenue for the state
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26 Jun 2026 •
Reading time: 3 minutes
The increase in gambling tax in the Netherlands has not had the desired effect. This is the conclusion reached by the Ministry of Finance and the Kansspelautoriteit (Ksa) in a new monitoring report on the tax increases implemented in 2025 and 2026.
Whilst the government had anticipated hundreds of millions of euros in additional revenue, the actual revenue fell far short of expectations.
Revenue falls far short of forecasts
In 2025, the gambling tax rate was increased from 30.5% to 34.2%. A second increase to 37.8% followed on 1 January 2026. The tax measures formed part of the Schoof government’s budgetary plans.
According to the forecasts, the first increase was expected to generate an additional €108 million. In reality, only €2 million of this was actually realised.
For the second increase, an additional €216 million in revenue was anticipated. According to current estimates, this measure will ultimately generate around €57 million.
The ministry and the regulator emphasise that the actual revenue for the state will be even lower because state-owned enterprises such as Holland Casino and Nederlandse Loterij are making less profit.
Holland Casino and Nederlandse Loterij affected
According to the report, Holland Casino’s pre-corporation tax profit fell by approximately €27 million in 2025 as a result of the tax increases. Consequently, the state received approximately €7 million less in corporation tax. A profit decline of €54 million is expected for 2026.
Nederlandse Loterij also saw its results deteriorate. Profits fell by €16 million in 2025 and are expected to decrease by €34 million in 2026.
This development also has consequences for the sports sector. Contributions to NOC*NSF fell for the first time. Whilst €56 million was contributed in 2024, this figure stood at €54 million in 2025.
Lower tax base
According to the report, the main cause of the disappointing tax revenue is the reduced tax base.
The gross gaming revenue of gambling companies, on which gambling tax is levied, has fallen in recent years. According to the researchers, this is linked to various policy measures introduced around the same period.
These include the Responsible Gaming Policy Rule 2024 and the Regulation on Betting Limits and More Conscious Gaming Behaviour. These measures came into force on 1 October 2024 and, amongst other things, restricted players’ deposit options.
Previous monitoring reports by the Ksa had already shown that average player losses had decreased following the introduction of these measures.
In addition, the regulator had previously noted that larger operators in particular had switched to illegal providers. This, too, has had an impact on the tax base.
Impact of tax increase difficult to determine
The Ministry of Finance and the Ksa state that it is difficult to measure the exact impact of the tax increases individually.
The tax measures coincided with stricter regulations on responsible gambling and further restrictions on gambling advertising. As a result, the effects of the individual measures cannot be fully separated from one another.
Using a mathematical model, the researchers estimate that the tax increases themselves will lead to a reduction in the tax base of approximately €33 million in 2025 and €90 million in 2026.
Land-based casinos are also feeling the effects
The impact is not limited to online gambling.
The report shows that the number of visits to land-based casinos and slot machine halls has fallen by 11 per cent. In the first quarter of 2025, these venues were visited 4.6 million times. A year later, that figure had fallen to 4.1 million visits.
The consequences had already become apparent on the high street. JVH Gaming & Entertainment closed 23 Flash Casino and Flamingo Casino branches. Fair Play Casino also closed five venues. Industry organisations had warned in advance that a higher tax burden would make such measures likely.
In Belgium, gambling tax works differently. Read more about it here.