The UK black market is set to double by 2028: a crucial warning for Belgium?
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25 May 2026 •
Reading time: 3 minutes
Is the over-regulation of online gambling producing the opposite effect? While Belgium tightens its laws, a shocking study reveals that the British black market is set to double by 2028.
Is the European regulatory squeeze pushing players toward illegal gaming platforms? While Belgium has tightened its rules in recent years (a near-total ban on advertising, strict controls), a shocking new study conducted in the UK by consultancy firm H2 Gambling Capital sounds like a serious warning for European regulators.
According to these forecasts, the amounts wagered on illegal gambling sites in the UK could almost double by 2028, rising from £17 billion (around €20 billion) in 2025 to more than £33 billion.
Within three years, nearly one in five pounds (19.2%) spent online by British players will completely escape the legal circuit. This massive flight worries the industry but primarily highlights the risks of over-regulation.
When player protection pushes toward the illegal
The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC), the body representing the legal sector in the UK, is sounding the alarm. This explosion of the black market coincides with discussions by the UK Gambling Commission regarding the introduction of intrusive affordability checks for players, coupled with tax increases.
“These forecasts are a wake-up call,” warns Grainne Hurst, chief executive of the BGC. “If the regulated market becomes less competitive due to higher taxes or overly intrusive checks, customers will not stop betting. They will simply turn to the black market.”
The danger to the consumer is immense. Illegal sites pay no taxes, do not support the local economy, and offer absolutely no protection against addiction (no deposit limits, no possibility of effective self-exclusion).
Belgium: a mirror scenario in the making?
For players and operators in Belgium, this situation is strangely reminiscent of domestic debates. The Gaming Commission (KSC) and Belgian policymakers have implemented drastic measures:
- a ban on bonuses,
- a near-total ban on advertising,
- the elimination of sports sponsorship by gambling companies,
- lowering the default deposit limit to €200 per week.
Belgium faces the same channeling challenge as the United Kingdom. If the barriers to accessing legal Belgian sites, such as the mandatory use of Itsme or overly heavy financial verifications, become too restrictive for recreational players, the risk of migration to illegal casinos increases drastically.
The importance of staying within the legal circuit
For both the UK and Belgian markets, the challenge over the coming years will be to find the perfect balance between effectively protecting vulnerable players and maintaining attractive legal platforms, without making them repulsive.
As a reminder, playing on an unauthorized site in Belgium not only exposes the player to fraud (unpaid winnings, theft of banking data) but also constitutes an offense punishable by heavy fines. Stay protected by checking our list of all legal casinos in Belgium before making any deposit on a site you do not know.