Meta is working on a prediction markets app as legal pressure mounts
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26 Jun 2026 •
Reading time: 3 minutes
Meta is working behind the scenes on its own prediction markets app, according to The New York Times. The app would be separate from Facebook and Instagram and would allow users to make predictions about future events.
The development of the app comes at a notable time.
Last week, the trade association VNLOK announced it was taking legal action against Meta over the dissemination of illegal gambling adverts via Facebook and Instagram. In addition, the organisation has lodged a complaint with the European Commission regarding alleged breaches of the Digital Services Act (DSA).
Arena is set to become Meta’s new prediction platform
According to The New York Times, the project is known internally as Arena. Users would be able to make predictions on a wide range of topics, including elections, sports matches and economic developments.
For the time being, Meta does not appear to be opting for a model where users can place bets with real money, according to the NY Times. The app is said to operate on a points system. According to the newspaper, Meta is keeping open the possibility of adding real-money betting at a later stage.
That decision would, for the time being, give the company some distance from the legal and regulatory debates that prediction markets are sparking worldwide.
Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have demonstrated in recent years that there is considerable interest in markets where users speculate on political, economic and social events.
Meta’s second attempt
The concept is not new to Meta.
In 2020, the company launched Forecast, an experiment in which users could make predictions about, amongst other things, the COVID-19 pandemic and other social issues. That project was discontinued in 2022.
With Arena, Meta appears once again to be seeking to establish a foothold in a market that increasingly lies at the intersection of financial markets, sports betting and online gambling.
VNLOK steps up pressure on Meta
The news about Arena comes as Meta faces increasing criticism from the gambling sector in the Netherlands.
VNLOK claims that illegal gambling operators are making extensive use of Facebook and Instagram to reach Dutch consumers. According to the trade association, Meta is not doing enough to block these adverts.
The organisation wants the courts to rule that Meta is failing to meet its obligations under the DSA and is demanding additional measures against illegal gambling adverts.
In this regard, VNLOK refers to a growing illegal market which, according to the trade association, has now reached a scale comparable to that of the legal online gambling market.
Criticism of Meta’s role
The debate over Meta’s role in illegal gambling has been ongoing for some time.
Reuters previously reported, based on internal documents, that Meta was earning billions of dollars worldwide from illegal gambling adverts and other fraudulent campaigns.
Should Meta decide in future to expand Arena to include real-money betting, the company is likely to come under even closer scrutiny from regulators and policymakers.