2026 World Cup: match-fixing alert  

As the 2026 World Cup approaches, sports fraud experts are concerned about an increased risk of match-fixing. The rapid growth of sports betting, the proliferation of betting markets and the expansion of the tournament to 48 teams are creating, according to Belgian expert Guy Reinenbergh, a particularly vulnerable environment.  

A World Cup under close scrutiny  

The players and coaching staff of the Belgian national team attended an information session on integrity ahead of the World Cup. This was mandated by the international football federation. The aim was to highlight the dangers associated with sports fraud, explain the methods used by match-fixing networks and outline the reporting channels in the event of suspicious approaches.  

For Guy Reinenbergh, a Belgian specialist in sports fraud, former member of the Belgian federal police and an expert consulted by the European Football Union, the threat has never seemed more serious. In his view, the 2026 World Cup brings together several risk factors rarely seen with such intensity.  

“All the warning signs are currently flashing red, and I don’t get the impression that Americans are aware of what’s at stake. The gambling market in the United States was deregulated last year, and most states have issued licences, with the exception of Hawaii, Alabama and Utah. It brings in money, but the more licences you issue, the more risk you take.”  

Why the risk increases in 2026  

The World Cup is always a sensitive period for betting. Guy Reinenbergh emphasises this point: during a major tournament, many people bet for the first time. However, the more newly created accounts there are, the more difficult it becomes to distinguish normal activity from fraudulent activity. The tools put in place by the gambling sector to detect anomalies do exist, but they become less accurate when activity surges over a short period.  

The 2026 World Cup will be played for the first time with 48 teams. The tournament will feature 104 matches. In other words, more matches, more players at risk, more opportunities to bet and, therefore, more entry points for those seeking to manipulate a sporting event.  

The presence of many players from teams that are not sporting favourites further heightens experts’ concerns. For some, this may be their only World Cup. Others know that their team has little chance of going far in the competition. In this climate, the promise of easy money or an approach from a malicious intermediary can create a vulnerability.  

Various approaches  

The integrity sessions given to Belgian players also covered the methods used to approach them. Fraud networks do not always immediately ask a player to betray their team. They may first seek to establish a connection, gain their trust, isolate them or compromise them.  

These approaches may take place via social media. Individuals tasked with luring athletes may offer gifts, provide attention or seek to establish a personal relationship. Initially, nothing necessarily resembles a request to fix a match. But over time, the tone may change. Favours are then requested in return.  

The situation becomes more dangerous when a player accepts an initial favour or allows a relationship of dependency to develop. If, subsequently, they fail to comply with what is asked of them on the pitch, the pressure can intensify. This dynamic explains why sporting authorities ask players to report any suspicious approaches at the earliest opportunity, even when they seem vague or indirect.  

From match-fixing to isolated incidents  

For a long time, the idea of sports manipulation mainly conjured up images of a match whose final result had been rigged. An entire team, a referee or several other participants in the match might be involved. But modern betting has changed the nature of the risk.  

Today, bets are no longer placed solely on a win, a draw or a loss. They can relate to a yellow card, a corner, a free-kick, a throw-in or any other specific event during the match. This is what experts describe as targeted match-fixing: it is not necessarily about deciding the winner, but about deliberately provoking a specific incident on which money has been wagered.  

This development changes everything. It is no longer necessary to convince an entire team. A single player can, for example, commit a deliberate foul, provoke a booking, concede a corner or act in a pre-planned manner. The action may seem trivial in the course of a match. This is precisely what makes fraud more difficult to prove. 

The case of Lucas Paquetá  

The case of Brazilian player Lucas Paquetá illustrates the difficulties posed by this type of suspicion. The West Ham midfielder was shown a yellow card in March 2023 following a dangerous tackle against Aston Villa. Subsequently, the English Football Association received a report from Brazil.  

In the player’s home region, on Paquetá Island, a series of recently created accounts had reportedly placed large bets on this yellow card. The case took on particular significance when Manchester City sought to sign the player in August 2023 to replace Kevin De Bruyne. The transfer, rumoured to be worth €110 million, was abandoned when the investigation became public.  

Paquetá was subsequently cleared of any wrongdoing due to insufficient evidence. But the case remains indicative of the difficulties involved in such investigations. A yellow card can result from a poorly executed move, a referee’s decision or a fraudulent instruction. Distinguishing between a sporting error and a premeditated act requires solid evidence, which is rarely easy to gather.  

In Belgium, illegal betting sites are also a cause for concern  

The problem is not limited to the pitch. In Belgium, the Gaming Commission shut down 150 illegal betting sites during the first five months of the year. This figure is almost equivalent to the total for the whole of 2025. 

For Stefaan Savenberg, the Commission’s spokesperson, this figure, however, represents only part of the picture. He points out that some players may use a virtual private network to bypass Belgian geographical restrictions and access foreign platforms.  

Some popular platforms are still under investigation. Among them is Stake, which Eden Hazard has promoted. Another cause for concern is prediction markets originating from the United States, which are considered illegal in Belgium. This week, an illegal website dedicated to World Cup predictions, adipredictstreet.com, was shut down in the country.  

A federation caught between prevention and partnerships  

The situation is all the more sensitive given that the Belgian Football Federation is reportedly in talks with a gambling-related sponsor. After two years of losses, it must present positive financial results and attributes the improvement in its situation, among other things, to a proactive approach towards potential partners.  

The apparent contradiction is a delicate one: on the one hand, players are being warned about the risks of manipulation, suspicious approaches and the dangers associated with betting; on the other, football remains financially attracted to players or brands linked to the gambling industry. 

Guy Reinenbergh’s warnings are not based on a single incident, but on a combination of factors: more matches, more betting markets, more players at risk, more new accounts, more platforms, and more complex detection during major tournaments.